620
FXUS64 KHGX 031130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

With low pressure developing east of the Rockies near the TX/OK
panhandles, a 25-30 kt LLJ has developed just to our west and will
gradually drift towards us through the morning. These elevated winds
"should" inhibit dense fog development, and the added lift from the
LLJ should also kick off some isolated showers by late morning. With
daytime heating, we`ll see some of those showers blossom into
isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. This is
mainly expected to impact locations north of I-10 and east of I-45.
PW values in this area will be approaching 2.0+" once again, so
locally heavy rainfall continues to be possible. 00Z CAMs still
depict a MCS moving northwest to southeast across some part of Texas
on late Monday, but the exact timing and placement is still
questionable. The Piney Woods has the best chances of being impacted
by this, which is why portions of Houston/Trinity/Polk counties are
under a slight risk of severe weather (level 2 out of 5) for today
with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for areas north of Harris
County (but not including it). Damaging winds, hail, and heavy
rainfall are the main hazards that will be associated with this line
of storms (wherever it moves through). A marginal risk of
excessive rainfall (level 1 out of 4) is outlined for portions of
the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. Daytime temperatures on Monday
will top out mainly in the low 90s. Low temperatures for the next
few nights will be fairly close to 80F for most, so we`ll be
flirting with some more record high minimum temperatures.

The forecast for Tuesday is a bit tricky as there looks to be
another MCS push through on early Tuesday morning according to the
latest run of the CAMs. If this happens, then we`ll be fairly
stabilized the rest of the day and should remain dry. If not, then
we could see the typical afternoon showers/storms develop with
plenty of moisture still around to pair with lift from another LLJ
and PVA. That`s a long-winded way of saying that the rainfall
forecast for Tuesday is low confidence at the moment, but high-res
guidance is currently trending towards the first scenario. 850mb
temperatures will be a bit higher on Tuesday though with both the
NAEFS and GEFS depicting 850mb temperatures being at their MAX
percentiles. So, expecting hotter temperatures on Tuesday with
highs in the low to mid 90s. When you combine that with the
humidity, it`ll feel like it`s 105-110F. Our criteria for a Heat
Advisory is heat index values  108F, so some portions of
Southeast TX may have one in place for Tuesday. On the positive
side though, winds will be a bit gusty with sustained winds around
10-15 mph and gusting up to 20-25 mph...so at least there`ll be a
good breeze!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main concern through the long term will be the return of the
heat. A long fetch of southerly flow at the surface driven by a
surface high pressure in the SE CONUS will help drive the
temperatures and dew points up. High temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon heat indices
rising to near 100 to 107 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid
to upper 70s for most inland locations with areas along the
immediate coast not dropping below 80 degrees. Also because of the
higher dew points along the coast, overnight heat indices may not
drop below 90 degrees.

Rain chances through the upcoming week will be fairly low. The
chances are slightly higher Tuesday and Wednesday as we get some
weak disturbances slide overhead combined with daytime heating,
but even then not looking like anything impressive as of right
now. Those low rain chances drop even lower as we head towards the
end of the week as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over
Texas.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A mixture of MVFR/VFR ceilings this morning, but expect widespread
VFR conditions to return by 16Z-18Z as southerly/southeasterly
winds steadily increase. Expect wind speeds around 10-15 knots
with gusts up to 20-25 knots throughout the day. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms are expected to develop later this
morning into the afternoon mainly to the northeast of any of the
TAF sites, but it`ll be a close enough call at UTS and CXO so VCTS
has been added for them. Another period of MVFR ceilings is
expected overnight areawide.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the
middle of next week with seas around 3 to 5ft. Small craft may need to
exercise caution at times, especially during the overnight hours as
wind gusts to near 20kt. There will be continued chances for showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some storms may become strong
to severe producing locally gusty winds and elevated seas. The
persistent onshore flow will also lead to a high risk of strong rip
currents through the weekend.

Fowler

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

There are currently four River Flood Warnings in effect: three along
the Trinity River and one on the Navasota River. The Navasota River
at Normangee was forecast to crest in major flood stage on Sunday,
but crested just below that in moderate flood stage. It`ll continue
on a gradual recession, but may take a while to completely drop out
of flood stage. The Trinity River at Riverside and at Moss Bluff
will remain in minor flood stage until further notice. Lastly, the
Trinity River at Liberty is right on the border between action stage
and minor flood stage, but is forecast to rise into minor flood
stage within the next day or two.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as river flooding continues.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  92  77  95  78 /  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  91  78  94  79 /  30  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  81  89  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler