450
FXUS66 KHNX 050810
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
110 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower
elevations from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday.

2. The Heat Risk will be major (red) today through Friday
afternoon, which will affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. Impacts are likely in some health
systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure.

3. Temperatures will lower this weekend but are forecast to
still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

4. The anticipated heat could lead to increased snowmelt over
the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along
rivers and waterways.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A large upper ridge is currently building inland
over CA and is also progged to strengthen today and Thursday.
This will result in a sharp warming trend across our area today
with maximum temperatures rising to 12 to 16 DEG F above daily
climatological normals with additional warming of 3 to 4 DEG F
expected across most of our area on Thursday. Several daily
record high temperatures will be approached today and broken on
Thursday. Some record highs are also possible on Friday as the
ridge shifts further inland into the Great Basin but remains
the dominant feature over central CA.  An Excessive Heat Warning
remains in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and adjacent
foothills, the Kern County desert, and the Kern River Valley
from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday. Here are the probabilities
for high temperatures of 105 DEG F or higher for selected
locations across the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert.

          Wed    Thu    Fri
Merced            26%    61%    26%
Madera            26%    61%    31%
Fresno            51%    81%    66%
Hanford           26%    71%    66%
Visalia           41%    76%    56%
Porterville       31%    71%    36%
Delano            41%    71%    36%
Bakersfield       31%    71%    36%
China Lake NWTC   96%   100%   100%
Edwards AFB       86%    91%    36%

The medium range ensembles are in good overall agreement with
weakening the ridge over CA this weekend as it continues to
shift eastward. This will result in lowering heights and
thicknesses to take place across our area and allow for a
cooling trend to take place. While dangerous heat is no longer
expected across most of our area by Saturday, maximum
temperatures are still expected to be 5 to 10 DEG F above daily
climatological normals this weekend.

Ensemble means are showing another ridge building back into CA
on Monday and Tuesday which will result in a warming trend, but
temperatures are expected to remain below dangerous heat levels.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA
interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT
Friday for CAZ300>317-319-321-332-337>339.

&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...DAS
idss...Molina

weather.gov/hanford