457
FXUS64 KHUN 031457
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
957 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 957 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Strong low level inversion in place this Mon morning is helping to
maintain low clouds across much of the mid TN Valley. The low cigs
should begin to lift within the next couple of hrs, as the low
level inversion weakens with increased mixing. High pressure
layered over the southern Atlantic will then maintain seasonably
warm conditions/temps later today, as highs climb mainly into the
mid/upper 80s. Minimal synoptic lift should offset the prob for
much in the way of showers/tstms, although a buoyant air mass
coupled with PWATs near 1.5-1.6 inches will at least provide for
a low chc (around 20%) of some convective activity this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tonight, low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms will
linger ahead of a shortwave that will make its way in on Tuesday.
This will bring medium chances (60%) of showers/storms across the
board by Tuesday afternoon that will be capable of producing gusty
winds and heavy rainfall. On Wednesday, an upper level low gliding
just north of the U.S. and Canadian border but NW of the Great
Lakes will run into a blocking pattern. The associated sfc low
will have a cold front extending down the MS Valley. There
continues to be model disagreement on the timing of the front,
however expecting to see medium to high chances (60-80%) of
showers/storms on Wednesday ahead of the front when a weak
shortwave also swings through. Forecast soundings are showing some
instability and 75th percentile or higher PWATS, thus storms will
be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Will have
to monitor how far south the bulk of the convection will end up on
Wednesday, as that will determine adjustments to QPF values and
any hydro concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

By Thursday, the shortwave axis will be off the Atlantic Coast and a
sfc front will move its way through the area. This will bring an end
to showers and storms from north to south Thursday morning, but will
maintain low chance (20-30%) PoPs during the afternoon giving model
differences in timing at this range. Highs will be near seasonal
norms in the mid to upper 80s with clearing skies during the
afternoon. A stronger sfc front will arrive Friday, reinforcing dry
and cooler conditions as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will
be limited to the lower 80s Friday afternoon as sfc high pressure
drifts south. From there, we will stay under the influence of
northwest flow through the remainder of the long term forecast.
Overnight lows will be relatively chilly Friday night into Saturday
morning, falling into the upper 50s in the higher terrain and near 60
degrees elsewhere. Low chance PoPs (20-30%) will return late in the
weekend as a series of weak shortwaves are progged to move into the
area, also bringing better moisture. Expect highs in the low to mid
80s through the weekend with lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Cloud cover has kept fog development at bay so far this morning
with only slight (but still VFR) VIS reductions observed. Any fog
or low stratus in place will improve after sunrise. Low confidence
in ceiling heights for this TAF package. Guidance wants to keep
CIGS MVFR into the afternoon hours, but opted for a Tempo to cover
this morning where there is higher confidence in it occurring.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today but low
confidence on if it will directly impact the terminals, so left it
out of the TAF at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...JMS