332
FXUS63 KIWX 051838
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The marginal risk of severe thunderstorms continues through
  this evening.

- Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail are the primary
  hazards.

- Warm and humid conditions give way to cooler than normal
  temperatures for much of the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A pre-frontal trough is still bringing showers and thunderstorms
to the region this afternoon, with the strongest storms now
moving into northwest Ohio. These storms should move east of the
forecast area by around 3 pm ET. Another line of convection is
developing along the cold front in eastern Illinois. However,
due to the morning activity, MUCAPE has now dropped below 1000
J/kg across most of northern Indiana. It may still increase
some as the front moves in and we get some breaks in the cloud
cover allowing temperatures to rebound a bit. Dewpoints are
still well into the 60s, but surface temperatures have fallen
into the upper 60s to low 70s. Therefore, any additional storms
that move into the area are likely to be sub-severe, with heavy
rain being the biggest threats. Another shortwave will then
rotate around the upper low that is centered in south-central
Canada later this evening and overnight, with a low chance for
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in Michigan.

Cooler and drier conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday
and the wake of today`s front. Friday`s highs will only be in
the mid 60s to low 70s. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will be Saturday as a weather disturbance drops
down from the northwest. Light showers then remain possible
through Sunday. High pressure builds in on Monday and Tuesday,
with temperatures warming back to near 80 on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Initial line of thunderstorms is currently exiting the area and
has stabilized the environment for now. While the main cold
front is still well to the west additional storms are not
expected at KSBN and the chances are low at KFWA. A period of
low MVFR ceilings along the front is likely though based on
upstream obs. A secondary cold front will then cross the area
overnight but conditions will remain VFR and no thunder is
expected. Gusty winds expected on Thursday as low pressure
settles into the Great Lakes.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...AGD