724
FXUS62 KJAX 231043
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
643 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Mostly clear skies will remain over the area with some patchy fog
development along between US17 and highway 301 corridors in the
predawn hours this morning, but not expecting widespread areas
of fog.

High pressure ridging will sink south over NE FL today from the
northeast with dry conditions. The Atlantic seabreeze will move
inland past highway 301 through mid to late afternoon and merge
with the weaker Gulf seabreeze around I-75/US441. Skies will be
partly cloudy from strong diurnal heating and thin cirrus passing
in from the northwest, but subsidence and dry air aloft will
prevent shower development. Highs will be warmer compared to
Wednesday into the low 90s along and west of I-95 with mid to
upper 80s at the coast buffered by the seabreeze.

Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with patchy fog developing
along and west of I-75 towards the Gulf coast as weak southerly
low level flow increases boundary layer moisture across the
Suwannee Valley. Lows will be a little above normal in the upper
60s inland and the low 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

A progressive warming trend and mostly dry with low shower/storm
chances each day (< 20%) as the surface ridge axis extends across
central FL and weak troughs linger to the NNW. Prevailing
westerly steering flow will bring a more dominant west coast sea
breeze, with the hottest daytime temperatures and thermal low
focused toward the I-95 corridor each afternoon as high
temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values
100-105 degrees. For context, record highs this time of year are
in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

Daily late day/early evening sea breeze collisions are expected
near to just west of the SE GA I-95 corridor and the NE FL St.
Johns River basin where a few showers or lone storm will be
possible, however, dry air in the 700-500 layer will really limit
convective growth. A strong 590 dam ridge will remain anchored
across the western GOMEX, with weak short wave troughs `ridge
riding` across the periphery which could trigger isolated
diurnally enhanced convection during the afternoon and evening,
mainly across SE GA with potential outflow boundary and sea breeze
interactions. NE FL will remain mostly dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Monday & Monday Night...Increasing rain chances and a downward
trend in high temperatures are expected with a frontal zone in
the area. The persistent GOMEX ridge begins to de-amplify across
the SE region as long wave trough deepens across the eastern
CONUS. A surface front edges southward across SE GA through Monday
night into with deeper moisture as PWATs rise over 1.8 inches
under increasing mid/upper level dynamics as rain chances increase
to near 30% Mostly dry and hot conditions continue across NE FL
where highs will be pushing the mid/upper 90s under breezier SW
flow, with little relief from the east coast sea breeze.

Tue & Wed...Scattered showers and isolated t`storms are expected
due to the frontal zone slowly edging southward across the area
(40-50% rain chances). By Wednesday, moisture shifts farther south
across the FL peninsula with drier and `cooler` conditions north
of the I-10 corridor as highs range in the upper 80s to low 90s as
a surface ridge builds WNW of the region. Given the time of year,
the potential for the frontal zone to stall farther north and
linger mid-week exists, which would maintain higher rain chances
across SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

After brief MVFR/IFR fog at VQQ through 13Z this morning, VFR
will prevail for most of the period. High pressure will extend
from the northeast through tonight with light south to southeast
winds about 5 knots turning becoming easterly behind advancing
Atlantic seabreeze 5-8 knots inland and near 10 knots at coastal
sites. Afternoon diurnal cumulus clouds will form ahead of the
seabreeze with bases 4.0 kft to 6.0 kft away from the coast with
clearing behind the seabreeze save for thin cirrus clouds moving
in from the northwest. Light southeast winds will turn calm inland
overnight and turn southerly at the coast around 5 knots with
MVFR shallow fog at VQQ after 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure will extend across the Northeast Florida waters from
the western Atlantic today with light southerly winds turning more
southeasterly and elevating some nearshore due to the Atlantic
seabreeze circulation. Seabreeze circulations will continue each
afternoon through the weekend into early next week with southwest
winds becoming southerly in the afternoon and early evening. Cold
front approaching from the northwest will sink into the waters with
chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waters.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Friday for all area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  92  70 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  85  72  88  72 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  90  70  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  87  71  92  72 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  92  67  93  67 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  92  68  93  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$