Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
671 FXUS62 KKEY 251838 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 238 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Dry and quiet weather has persisted into this afternoon. A broken thin line of showers has waxed and waned across the outer Gulf waters along a line from L to D Towers. Otherwise, KBYX is not detecting any precipitation echoes close to the Keys. Temperatures have warmed up from this morning with current readings in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees with dew points holding in the lower 70s. Winds remain southerly for now but are in the process of going variable as the Florida Peninsula and Cuba heat up. .FORECAST... No big changes to the forecast going into the next 7 days. The Florida Keys will lie on the western periphery of a broad surface anticyclone that will essentially remain in place across the southwestern North Atlantic. Meanwhile, the low level ridge will extend westward from the Atlantic and across the entire Gulf of Mexico. The ridge will wax and wane in strength as an energetic polar jet steam rolls one storm system after the next through the northern half of the U.S. This means that the Keys will continue to be under a weak pressure gradient and therefore will have light and at times variable winds. In addition, deep dry air will hold in place with no clear signals for an injection of moisture. This will hold PoPs near nil through at least the rest of the Memorial Day weekend. Beyond the weekend, confidence is low that we will see an uptick in rain chances. Given that the ridge will not move all that much and with no obvious signs of lift, have tempered back rain chances to 10 percent Tuesday through Thursday night. Both models show hints for the potential for better lift towards the end of next week. The upper level ridge that current sits across Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico looks to break down and retreat westward. This may allow for a trough to dig across the Eastern Seaboard and allow for a better chance for showers and even some thunderstorms. For now, not going deep end with PoPs and will limit to 20 percent for now until we see a better signal. Otherwise, daytime temperatures may slowly creep up into the lower 90s with dew points also edging upwards. The combination of which still presents possible heat-related illness for next week. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Light to gentle breezes generally out of the southeast to south will continue through the overnight and Sunday, and will periodically become variable in direction due to the light nature and effects of daytime heating. A high pressure will gradually shift east Sunday through Monday. This will allow for breezes to modestly surge during the overnights Sunday and Monday and lull each afternoon. As this high slides further east on Tuesday, breezes will slacken and will go light and variable at times. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both EYW and MTH. Near surface winds are light and variable becoming southeast to south late tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 10 Marathon 82 91 81 91 / 0 0 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest