913
FXUS62 KKEY 281902
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
302 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
Surface analysis places a stationary front extending from the Gulf
coast to the Northeast, with a series of high pressure centers in
the North Atlantic. This places the Florida Keys in a region of
light and variable flow. In the mid and upper levels, an expansive
ridge extends from just east of Central Mexico to the western
Bahama Island, which is acting to deflect any shortwave activity
away from our area. Nearby KAMX Doppler radar is detecting
diurnally- driven, popcorn-variety showers and thunderstorms
waxing and waning across the South Florida Mainland. Closer to
home, skies are mostly sunny across the island chain, with
temperatures approaching their daytime peaks near 90F. Combined
with dew points in the upper 70s, feels-like temperatures are in
the lower 100s at most locations.

For the next several days, the aforementioned weak, chaotic
surface flow will continue, with any shower or thunderstorm
activity likely driven by subtle boundary layer moisture advection
events and residual boundaries from afternoon convection over
South Florida. The latest mesoscale numerical weather prediction
guidance suggests this could first occur tonight, with scattered
shower activity in the vicinity of the Lower and Middle Keys
developing after midnight. Given the lack of large-scale forcing
for ascent and substantial dry air aloft, nudging towards slight
measurable rain chances appears prudent for now, but this will be
reevaluated with the evening update forecast package.

An area of high pressure currently centered over south-central
Canada will dive southeastward over the next several days,
pushing offshore of the Delmarva Peninsula by Friday night. This
will result in freshened easterly breezes over the weekend through
early next week. The origins of this airmass will produce a tight
moisture gradient setting up in the vicinity of the Florida Keys.
In this scenario, and given the suppressed ridging aloft
eliminating much in the way of a mid-level cap, bouts of
unsettled conditions typically result, with global MOS guidance
often under performing on measurable rain chances. Have retained
low- end chain rain and thunder chances for now, but this will be
reevaluated over upcoming forecast cycles.

The 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone season begins in a few days.
There are early indications of a Central American Gyre (CAG)
developing this weekend through early next week. This can often
create result in surface cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the
Yucatan Peninsula. For now, any developing low would likely drift
northeastward harmlessly into the North Atlantic, well displaced
from the CONUS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. Light to gentle,
generally variable breezes are expected through Thursday. High
pressure currently over south- central Canada will emerge off the
Mid-Atlantic coast by the end of the work week. This will result
in fresh northeast to east breezes beginning as early as Friday
night, lasting through early next week. Small Craft Advisories may be
required for portions or all of the Florida Keys marine zones as
early as Friday evening or Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals. Near
surface winds will be light and variable through the evening into
the overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82  91  81  91 /  20  10  10  10
Marathon  82  91  82  91 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....DR

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