886
FXUS65 KLKN 042010
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
110 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge over the southwest U.S. continues
to strengthen midweek, keeping the drier weather as well as
increasing warmer temperatures. Thursday, the upper level ridge is
expected to head east, allowing zonal southwest flow to return for
northern Nevada along with some moisture, increasing the chances
for some isolated showers and thunderstorms, however central
Nevada south of US-50 is expected to remain dry and warm.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday

Warming trend continues as the upper level ridge strengthens over
the southwestern U.S. increasing temperatures as highs Wednesday
are expected at 80-90 degrees. Low temperatures are also expected
to increase with tonight in the 50s and by Wednesday evening, into
the 50s-60s. Light winds expected each day with speeds below 10
mph.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Monday. The upper level ridge
axis will slide east on Thursday. The resulting southwest flow
will allow for some mid-level moisture to move into northern and
central Nevada. Isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. Storm speeds look to
be around 10-20kt for Thursday afternoon so some of the
thunderstorms could be dry. Any storms that form would have the
potential for gusty and erratic outflow winds from collapsing
storms. Highs will be quite warm with above normal readings in the
90s. Some high temperature may be tied or broken. Look for partly
cloudy skies during the overnight with showers ending. Lows will
be in the mid to upper 50s.

The upper ridge will continue shifting east and will be somewhere
in Texas on Friday. Moisture will continue to reside over northern
and central Nevada with precipitable water values at or above 0.65
inches. Expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across locations north of and including US Highway 50. Storm
motion will be around 10 to 20 knots. Highs will be warm once
again with temperatures in the 90s. This could be another day
where record high temperatures could be set. Some evening activity
is possible in northeastern Nevada during the overnight and lows
will be in the 50s.

Convective activity will continue through the weekend with the
highest chances over northeastern Nevada. Winds will be breezy
each afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph. Highs will be in the 80s
and 90s each afternoon with lows in the 50s. Some leftover showers
are possible in northeast Elko county by Monday with highs in the
80s and 90s and lows in the 50s.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions at all terminals for the 24-hour
forecast period. Relatively light today, generally less than
10KT, though occasional gusts of 15-20KT possible for a few hours
after 18Z/Wed afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures expected to continue to rise to well
above normal through Wednesday as the upper level ridge
strengthens over the region. Light winds and dry weather expected
overnight and through Wednesday. Thursday, increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms as the upper level ridge begins to move
east.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Elevated flows expected to continue in some areas of
streams and rivers from the seasonal snowmelt. Increasing
temperatures are expected to increase the rate of snowmelt from
the remaining snow on mountain tops. Chances for isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the latter half of the week could produce
wetting rain over the remaining snowpack.

The lower Humboldt near Battle Mountain remains in action stage
and is forecasted to slowly rise but remain in action stage for
the next several days.

Wildhorse Reservoir is forecast to remain in action stage for the
next several days.

Lamoille Creek continues to trend upward with diurnal fluctuations
in height. Overall trend continues to see an increase with minor
flooding possible by mid to late next week as temperatures
continue to rise above normal.

Jarbidge River is forecast to remain in action stage over the next
few days.


&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

97/86/86/97