393
FXUS64 KLZK 281131
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
631 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Skies were mostly clear across AR this morning with temperatures
starting out in the 60s. This afternoon, slight chance to chance
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over SW and W AR
associated with the passage of an upper level disturbance near the
ArkLaTex`s region. High temperatures today should be in the lower
80s to lower 90s.

In the upper levels, NW flow will be in place as a ridge moves
towards the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure will be situated
across the Mid and Upper MS Valleys. Clockwise flow around this area
of high pressure will advect cooler and drier air into the region
on light Nrly winds. Drier and cooler air will remain entrenched
across portions of the state through mid-week.

On Wednesday, chance PoPs will increase across a larger portion of
the state with the passage of another upper level impulse. Rain
chances should be greatest in the afternoon and more widespread in
coverage over W and SW AR. High temperatures should be slightly
cooler than Tuesday thanks to precipitation and cloud cover, with
readings only climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the 60s. Organized severe weather is not expected
during the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

To begin the period, NW flow aloft will be over the area as surface
high pressure controls the weather pattern. Even with high pressure
over the state...much of the period will be unsettled as several
disturbances move across the area under northwest flow. This could
result in MCS`s moving southeastward across the state.

Even though PoPs will remain elevated through the period, it is
likely that many locations will not see rain every day...it will all
just depend on the track of the storms (or MCS`s). As of this
forecast package, the chance for severe weather is on the low side.
But changes to the forecast are possible over the next few days. Any
storms would pose a greater risk for damaging straight-line winds.

Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s through
the period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream into the state from
OK and TX today, however VFR conds are expected to prevail
through the entire TAF period. Winds are expected to be light and
variable. A few scattered showers, including an isolated
thunderstorm, is possible this afternoon but probabilities are
low enough to just warrant VCSH mentioning at the moment.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  63  79  61 /  10  10  20  10
Camden AR         88  65  80  63 /  10  20  50  20
Harrison AR       82  60  77  59 /  20  10  20  10
Hot Springs AR    87  65  79  62 /  20  30  50  20
Little Rock   AR  89  68  82  65 /  10  20  40  20
Monticello AR     90  68  82  65 /  10  20  40  20
Mount Ida AR      86  63  78  62 /  30  30  50  20
Mountain Home AR  84  60  78  60 /  20  10  20  10
Newport AR        87  64  80  63 /  10  10  20  10
Pine Bluff AR     89  67  81  64 /  10  20  40  20
Russellville AR   88  65  79  63 /  20  20  40  10
Searcy AR         88  64  79  62 /  10  10  30  10
Stuttgart AR      88  67  80  65 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...70