575
FXUS64 KMAF 021107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
607 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Zonal flow continues for the short term period. What that means for
today is dry air mixing east into the western Permian Basin and
Trans Pecos, creating a dryline off which isolated to scattered
convection will form this afternoon and evening. Any storms that
form will have a chance to become severe with strong winds and large
hail the main threats. Temperatures will be warmer than yesterday
though still near normal for this time of year.

Tomorrow westerly mid level flow continues to push the hot and dry
air out west into the Permian Basin and possibly all the way to the
western Low Rolling Plains. This sends temperatures well above
normal with highs in most locations exceeding 100 degrees. All
storms are expected to be east of the CWA though one or two could
develop in Scurry and Mitchell counties.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The long term forecast finally makes a return to a quieter and more
benign weather pattern through the early to middle of next week. The
mid-level ridge and associated surface high pressure should slowly
shift back westward towards the southern Rocky Mountains Tuesday
into at least Thursday. This results in dry northwesterly flow in
the mid to upper-levels and generally weak southwesterly flow near
the surface. This means there is no rain during this part of the
forecast. Temperatures quickly become very hot once again with
widespread 100s overspreading most of the region and the hottest
temperatures expected along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys.
This pattern should slowly change towards the end of the coming
week. An upper-low off the coast of Baja should slowly slide into
the southwestern CONUS. As this occurs, the threat of thunderstorms
makes their return to the western higher elevations. This will be
supported by the return of moist southwesterly mid to upper-level
flow and weak disturbances kicked out from the upper-low.
Additionally, a glancing blow from thunderstorms moving out of
eastern New Mexico into southeast New Mexico and the northern
Permian Basin can not be ruled out as this activity is pushed
southeast. Overall thunderstorm coverage should be isolated to
scattered but any rainfall will be beneficial for the parched
western regions. Temperatures remain hot despite the influence of
the upper-low though they should be a touch cooler as heights come
down slightly.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Current satellite shows MVFR CIGs developing near MAF as forecast.
It should impact MAF for a few hours before dissipating near 16Z.
Other TAF sites should remain VFR. THe current observation of MVFR
CIGs at HOB appears in error when compared with current satellite.
ISOLD TS will develop in the Permian Basin near 21Z and may impact
local flying ops, but should not directly affect any of the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               93  72 103  70 /  20  10   0   0
Carlsbad                100  65 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   95  75 102  71 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Stockton            98  70 104  69 /  20  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           90  65  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    96  64 100  63 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                    96  58  97  56 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  71 104  68 /  10  10   0   0
Odessa                   94  71 103  69 /  10  10   0   0
Wink                    100  68 105  66 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-
     Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster
     County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10