871
FXUS62 KMFL 252345
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Portions of southeast Florida could see scattered shower activity
once again today as ridging erodes and the sea breezes become the
driving features for convection. The 12Z sounding showed moderate
instability and moisture in the lower levels which could support a
few strong thunderstorms, with current values of SBCAPE and PWATs
at 1300 J/kg and 1.5 inches, respectively, which could climb up
to values greater than 3000 J/Kg and near 2 inches this afternoon.
This - combined with growing lapse rates as warming continues -
will support a damaging wind threat and the chance for localized
flooding across western-most portions of the southeast FL metro
areas where the sea breezes are forecast to collide. An additional
risk exists for small hail with some of the stronger storms, but
warmer temperatures aloft will help limit this risk.

Temperatures will reach the mid 90s later this afternoon ahead of
the convection as winds remain out of the S/SW, with heat indices
in the low 100s possible. Some relief will be felt across the
East Coast once the sea breeze pushes in, but we`re talking a few
degrees of difference, if that.

Ridging will build back on Sunday with only isolated chances for
showers and storms in the forecast. Lack of cloud coverage and
convection will once again allow temperatures to climb into the mid
90s across much of South FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Weather looks more unsettled this upcoming week as the ridge breaks
down and several impulses pivot around the base of a trough that
sets up over the eastern US. At the surface, a frontal boundary will
linger north of Lake Okeechobee in the mid to end week time frame.
Monday will be the driest day of the week with 20-30 PoPs for mainly
afternoon and early evening diurnally driven convection. PoPs then
increase to 40-50 for Tuesday through Friday with the added moisture
and instability in place across South FL. Forecast soundings for the
middle to end of next week show deep layer moisture with PWAT values
in excess of 2 inches. This will lead to efficient rain rates with
the stronger thunderstorms, and could potentially lead to some urban
flooding concerns across the metro, especially if multiple storms
move over the same areas within a short period of time. Still plenty
of time to evaluate this over the next several days. Regardless, the
increase in convection coverage next week could bring some much
needed relief to portions of South FL still experiencing drought
conditions, especially around the lake region.

No relief expected at least in the early to middle portion of next
week from the heat, with highs generally in the low to mid 90s
across the metro, and mid to upper 90s over the interior. Max heat
indices will be over 100 degrees each day through at least Thursday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 70s to around 80. Some minor
relief is possible late next week into next weekend as the low level
flow becomes northeasterly, however temps are likely to remain above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
across southeastern FL. As they progress towards the eastern TAF
sites, there will be chances for MVFR/IFR conditions to increase
between 00-02Z as brief downpours and gusty SW winds are likely
with passing storms. VFR conditions will return for the remainder
of the TAF period as storms move over the waters by ~03Z. Light
and variable winds are expected overnight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Generally benign conditions should prevail across local waters
through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in
storms particularly over the Atlantic waters. Exercise caution
conditions could be possible Sunday-Monday as southerly winds 10-15
kts prevail over the local waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

With generally southerly flow prevailing, the risk of rip
currents across East Coast will remain low through the holiday
weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

Listed below are the current records for high temperatures across
the east coast metro areas heading into this upcoming holiday
weekend: Forecast highs are expected to reach the mid 90s.

      5/25     5/26     5/27
MIA: 93-2005  94-1949  96-1902
FLL: 94-1963  94-1924  94-1924
PBI: 96-1949  93-2000  96-1928

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  93  80  93 /  40  20  10  30
West Kendall     74  95  76  94 /  40  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        76  95  79  94 /  40  30  10  30
Homestead        76  92  78  93 /  40  20  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  92  79  92 /  40  30  20  30
N Ft Lauderdale  77  93  79  93 /  40  30  20  30
Pembroke Pines   77  96  79  97 /  40  30  10  30
West Palm Beach  75  93  76  94 /  40  20  10  30
Boca Raton       76  94  78  94 /  40  30  20  30
Naples           76  91  77  93 /  10  10   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Simmons