Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
283 FXUS63 KMKX 280840 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers & storms again today. Severe weather is unlikely in this activity. - Dry & pleasant conditions prevail from Wednesday through the end of the week. Friday night will be the next chance for precipitation. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Today through Tonight: Showers will slide out over the next few hours bringing a period of drier conditions into the mid morning hours. Models are largely in agreement that the region will see scattered showers and storms (45-60%% chances) as another shortwave slides southeast from central Canada into the western Great Lakes region. The scattered shower activity will likely (80%) begin late this morning and persisting through at least part of the evening hours, with the best storm chances (30%) during the afternoon hours. With regard to storm chances, stronger storms are not expected due to a lack of shear but due to decent lapse rates from cooler conditions aloft we could see instability as high as 1000 J/kg. Thus we cannot rule out some taller storms capable of producing some hail and/or gusty winds, especially if we can get some decent sunshine in the morning. Storms will likely end by the early evening hours as any diurnal heating ends. Precip will gradually dissipate into the evening as the surface high begins nudging in as with the upper ridge. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Wednesday through Monday: By Wednesday we will finally return to drier conditions with higher pressure sliding in with ridging building in aloft. Through at least Friday we expect to remain dry though models have shifted fairly significantly over the last 24hrs regarding precip potential into the weekend. Yesterday models trended drier through Saturday but the latest models now suggest precipitation is more likely expected by Friday night into Saturday. Given the last models changes it could be presumed that more changes remain possible. This looks largely related to some UL shortwave energy injected into the otherwise large scale ridging aloft. Models currently suggest this would be largely rain with not much instability to work with. Then by Sunday we should see another system push in as the UL ridge slides out with the surface high. We will have to watch the timing of this system as there is at least some risk for some severe storms. In addition Monday will see a similar scenario with more storms expected though it looks like better timing. In either scenario instability looks plenty but shear is somewhat lacking so that is something that lowers the severe potential. Kuroski && .AVIATION... Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Rain has largely cleared out with midlevel CIGS though some clearing in the southwest. This clearing may last into the mid morning before the next system starts pushing in. Showers and storms are expected with the best storm chances in the afternoon with gradual dissipation into the evening. Largely, outside of showers and storms, expect VFR conditions but some VSBY restrictions could be expected with heavier rains. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Low pressure over central Ontario will continue to slide northeast as high pressure inches nudges into north central US. Breezy northwest winds will diminish slightly, but remain elevated through this evening as the high slides toward the western Great Lakes. West to northwest flow will shift to northerly with winds gradually weakening over time as the high pressure builds into the region on Wednesday. The high will hold strong into the early weekend with light to modest north winds from Wednesday through at least Friday. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee