436
FXUS64 KMOB 252342
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
642 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions will mainly prevail through the next 24 hours
across the north central Gulf Coast region, along with mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies and southerly winds. A period of MVFR
cigs is possible late tonight into Sunday morning; so added a
TEMPO group from 26/09z to 26/13z at the terminal sites. /22

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the Plains,
with weak ridging and zonal flow over much of the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, high pressure remains anchored over the northeast
Gulf, with southerly flow persisting across the local area. Weak
shortwaves moving around the northern periphery of the ridge have
sparked several MCSs overnight and into today, with outflow
boundaries meandering over the southeast. The combination of these
outflows, aided by diurnal temp trends and plentiful moisture,
has allowed new activity to develop around our northeast zones,
though these have generally been short lived. As we head into our
peak heating hours, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
remain possible, mainly along and north of the US-84 corridor. Any
storm that`s able to maintain its updraft strength will be
capable of producing small hail and localized wind gusts, but
these will be more isolated. Storms lingering into the evening
hours will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating,
leaving a mild overnight period across the area.

Sunday will be another dry and hot day, as the upper ridging
amplifies during the day. Daytime highs will warm into the upper
80s along the coast to lower 90s further inland. Max heat index
values will near 100 degrees, but should remain below the triple
digits for most of the area. Rain chances will be on the low side
thanks to the subsidence associated with the amplifying ridge. /73

SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The Memorial Day holiday may be a tad more active, as the ridge
begins to flatten and a trough swings into the Mississippi Valley.
A cold front associated with its parent surface low will trail
southward and into Texas late Sunday night, with this system
expected to move eastward during the overnight hours. Rain chances
will increase during the afternoon on Monday and may linger into
the overnight hours. With the surface cold front and upper trough,
we will likely have a bit more lift and shear for organized
convection to move into the area, but the coverage of storms
should be scattered at best, and the coverage of severe storms
will likely remain isolated. The main threats would be brief gusty
winds and hail in the stronger storms.

The boundary may stall just south of the coastline on Tuesday,
which would keep isolated chances for thunderstorms in the
afternoon hours. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how
far south and how quickly the front is able to reach, so will
maintain isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the
boundary is expected to have dissipated with high pressure and
upper ridging building back into the area. This will bring hot and
dry conditions back to the region, with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s /73

MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow is expected to
persist across the coastal waters through Monday. Winds will be
enhanced across inland bay and sounds each afternoon with the
seabreeze. A cold front approaches from the north on Monday and
will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and
storms Monday into Tuesday. A brief light offshore flow is
expected by Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front moves
offshore.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  88  75  90  72  92  68  91 /   0   0   0  30  10  10  10  10
Pensacola   75  87  77  87  75  91  71  89 /   0   0   0  20  20  20  10  10
Destin      76  85  77  86  76  89  72  88 /   0   0   0  20  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   70  92  72  91  69  91  64  91 /  20   0   0  50  30  10  10  10
Waynesboro  71  92  71  92  67  91  64  90 /  10   0  10  40  20  10  10  10
Camden      70  92  72  91  67  89  64  88 /  40   0  10  50  30  10  10  10
Crestview   69  90  71  90  70  93  64  93 /   0   0   0  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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