947
FNUS74 KMOB 311449
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for H-4 RX...Eglin AFB
National Weather Service Mobile AL
949 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions are expected over the burn site
through this evening, then rain chances increase late tonight into
Saturday. A chance for rain continues for Sunday. Afternoon
relative humidity values remain above critical levels. Transport
winds will be mostly southeasterly through Saturday then a
southerly flow follows for Sunday. Dispersion values will be
generally good today through Saturday and fair on Sunday.

Fog potential and other remarks...Fog development is not
anticipated through Sunday.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................4.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........67 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 17 to 23 mph.
Dispersion index....33 increasing to 50 early in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 39 in the afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........65     69     71     70     73     76
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).70     70     70     60     60     60
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4
Temp............77     84     84     82     83     84
RH..............82     67     67     72     70     67
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     SE     SSE    SSE    SSE
20 FT wind spd..12     13     14     15     15     14
20 FT wind gust.22     23     24     25     24     21
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   3000   3100   3000   2800   2800
Transp wind dir.SE     SSE    S      SSE    SSE    SSE
Transp wind spd.20     23     21     18     17     17
Dispersion idx..33     50     50     41     37     37
LVORI...........3      3      2      2      2      3

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1900, then 3.
Min temperature.....Around 72.
Max humidity........87 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph in the evening becoming
                    light, then becoming south around 5 mph after 3
                    am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 17 mph shifting to the southeast 6
                    to 7 mph after 3 am.
Dispersion index....37 decreasing to 8.
LVORI...............5.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........77     75     70     65     64     66
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).60     40     40     40     30     30
LAL.............4      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............82     78     76     75     74     73
RH..............69     79     82     82     84     87
20 FT wind dir..SSE    SSE    SSE    S      S      SSE
20 FT wind spd..13     8      6      5      5      6
20 FT wind gust.18     13     9      7      7      9
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   600    600    600    600    400
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S      S      SE
Transp wind spd.17     15     12     12     9      6
Dispersion idx..37     14     11     10     9      8
LVORI...........3      3      4      4      4      5

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................3.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....9 increasing to 39.
LVORI...............4.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........57     56     61     46     41     44
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).30     40     40     40     50     50
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............73     76     81     83     84     84
RH..............87     82     72     67     65     65
20 FT wind dir..SSE    SSE    SSE    S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      7      8      9      10     10
20 FT wind gust.9      10     13     14     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1400   2900   3900   4200   3900
Transp wind dir.SSE    SSE    S      S      S      SSW
Transp wind spd.9      12     10     10     10     10
Dispersion idx..9      22     32     38     39     36
LVORI...........5      3      3      2      2      2

$$
Forecaster...29
Requested by...Tom Murrie
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415408.0/MOB
.DELDT 05/31/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL thomas.murrie@us.af.mil