578
FNUS73 KMPX 231458
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Numo Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
958 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For the Numo Rx fire, winds will be out of the south/southeast at
ignition with speeds between 10-15 mph. A slight increase in
winds will bring gusts into to the 20-25 mph range this afternoon.
RH`s in the 50s at ignition will fall into the 40-45 percent
range this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening, with more likely storms overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........69 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    South winds 10 to 16 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /54800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /131100 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (174500 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 7000 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 30 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............69  72  74  76  77  78  78  78  76  73  69  67
RH..............57  51  48  43  40  37  39  39  43  48  55  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..10  13  14  14  15  16  16  15  14  14  14  14
20 FT wind gust.17  18  20  22  22  23  24  23  23  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.9 5.1 5.9 6.0 7.0 6.8 6.2 2.4 0.8 0.6 0.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.21  22  23  25  25  29  30  29  25  23  22  21
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    in the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the night. Showers overnight.
Temperature.........Min 57.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (155200 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (53700 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
                    to poor (7000 knot-ft) late in the night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 21 to 29 mph decreasing to 14 to 18 mph
                    overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
                    through the day. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 14 mph shifting to the west
                    22 to 23 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (106000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (115300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 21 mph increasing to west 24 to
                    32 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415002.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us