222
FXUS66 KMTR 291145
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
445 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

A few degrees warmer across the board today as the warm up
continues. Slight cool down over the weekend with another more
notable warming trend on the horizon next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The upper low in the PacNW which slowed our warming trend slightly
pulls away today, and we begin to see 500 mb height rises with the
next ridge building in. With slightly drier air in place, very
limited overnight stratus. In fact, as of writing the only
locations seeing marine stratus are the coastal near Santa Cruz
and patchy areas along the Monterey Bay. This clear start to the
day will help boost daytime highs a little higher with what looks
like a wonderful day ahead, weather-wise. Expect highs in the low-
to-mid 80s inland, 70s around much of the immediate Bay Area, and
low-to-mid 60s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 140 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

The warm up continues with Thursday and Friday looking to be the
warmest. Each of these days are likely to see high temps in the
upper 80s to near 90 for inland areas, mid-to-upper 70s across the
immediate Bay Area, and a spread of low-to-upper 60s along the
coast. The warming trend is again thwarted by a deepening upper
trough in the Gulf of Alaska, extending into the PacNW. Only a few
degrees cooler, the weekend into early next week will be stellar
in terms of "outdoor weather".

Longer term guidance is hinting at a more robust ridge building
across the western half of the US by mid-to-late next week.
Perhaps among the warmest temperatures so far this year...about
6-12 degrees above normal. Stay tuned to the forecast for any
heat-related messaging that may be needed as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Stratus has been eroded and is not
expected to make a return to terminals within the current TAF
period. Other than the northern Monterey Bay this morning, satellite
shows crystal clear skies across the region. Breezy onshore winds
return this afternoon, though not expecting much in the way of
gusts. Winds ease into the nighttime to become light.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period, with high confidence.
Winds out of the west and moderate this afternoon, with occasional
gusts up to around the 25 knot mark. Winds slowly ease into the
nighttime.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period, with moderate
confidence. Satellite continues to show a small patch of stratus
over the northern Monterey Bay. At this time, not expecting this
stratus to move southwards and form a CIG over KSNS, though FEW-SCT
low clouds are not out of the question. Winds out of the W/NW this
afternoon, generally 8-12 knots, then diminishing as the sun sets.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 445 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

Strong northwesterly breezes with gale force gusts to prevail over
much of the waters through at least Thursday, bringing hazardous
conditions for small craft. These stronger winds decrease
slightly to become fresh towards the weekend as surface high
pressure weakens. Significant wave heights will build to 12 to 14
feet by Thursday with an abating trend set for Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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