Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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FNUS73 KOAX 310921
FWSOAX
Spot Forecast for LHPS GRASS Event 2024...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
421 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 31.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Ongoing showers and storms are on a downward trend which should
give a mostly dry period this morning, but can`t completely rule
out a stray shower moving through in the 8 AM to noon window.
After that, expect scattered storms to redevelop, and while there
will likely be gaps between storms, there`s a 60-70 percent chance
of a storm moving through at some point in the afternoon.
Otherwise, expect temperature at ignition to be around 63 degrees
with RH around 93 percent. Winds should be out of the southeast
at 5 to 10 mph with a few gusts of 15 to 20 mph, though speed and
direction could be little erratic with any storm that passes
through. Expect a high temperature of 75 and a minimum RH around
72 percent.
Saturday looks drier with rain chances likely holding off until
the late evening hours. Expect fairly similar temperatures and RH
values dipping into the 40s. Winds will be out of the northwest
through mid-afternoon before becoming southerly by late
afternoon/early evening.
Strongest Possible Wind Speeds on Day of Burn: 35 mph, would likely
be associated with showers/storms
Lowest Possible Relative Humidity on Day of Burn: 50%
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of
showers early in the morning. Chance of
thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely
in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming southeast up to 6 mph with
gusts to around 12 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 10 mph with
gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 9 mph with
gusts to around 16 mph in the late morning and
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms early in the morning. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (42000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83 81 92 78 83 87 90 89 92 90
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............63 65 68 71 72 72 73 71 71 71
RH..............96 93 81 76 77 74 72 75 76 76
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..4 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7
20 FT wind gust.8 10 11 13 14 16 16 16 14 14
Eye lvl wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Eye lvl wnd spd.3 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5
Eye lvl wnd gst.6 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 11 10
Surface wnd dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Surface wnd spd.5 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9
Surface wnd gst.10 12 14 16 17 20 20 20 18 17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 1.7 2.5 2.5 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.1
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.13 13 14 15 16 15 16 16 14 13
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100014 22 30 36 41 42 39 34 29 25
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
and chance of thunderstorms in the evening,
then chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds around 4 mph early in the
evening becoming light.
Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds around 8 mph decreasing to 6 to
8 mph early in the evening, then becoming light
in the late evening and overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 7 mph decreasing to 5 to
6 mph early in the evening, then becoming light
in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the late evening
and overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest
around 7 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (22000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........91 87 95 89 82 76
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE S CHC S CHC S CHC
Temp............70 68 64 63 62 61
RH..............76 78 90 93 93 98
20 ft wind......SE 6 SE 5 SE 4 SE 3 S 2 SW 2
20 ft wind gust.13 10 7 6 6 6
Eye level wind..SE 4 SE 4 SE 3 SE 2 S 1 SW 1
Eye lvl wnd gst.10 7 5 4 4 4
Surface wind....SE 8 SE 6 SE 5 SE 4 S 3 SW 3
Surface wnd gst.16 12 9 7 7 7
Mix hgt (ft)....1900 1100 600 700 700 600
Transport wind..SE 14 SE 10 SE 8 S 8 S 9 S 8
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100022 13 4 4 4 4
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming northwest around 4 mph
late in the morning, then becoming light late
in the afternoon.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming northwest around 6 mph
late in the morning, then becoming light late
in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph
late in the morning, then becoming light late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the northwest,
then shifting to the west around 8 mph late in
the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (37700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
GFDI................0.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........78 77 71 50 33 32
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............59 61 67 72 76 77
RH..............100 99 84 68 61 53
20 ft wind......W 2 NW 3 NW 4 NW 5 NW 5 W 4
20 ft wind gust.6 6 7 10 10 8
Eye level wind..W 1 NW 2 NW 3 NW 4 NW 4 W 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.4 4 5 7 7 6
Surface wind....W 3 NW 4 NW 5 NW 6 NW 6 W 5
Surface wnd gst.7 7 9 12 12 10
Mix hgt (ft)....700 1100 2000 3300 4600 5000
Transport wind..W 7 W 12 NW 12 NW 10 N 12 W 8
GFDI............0 0 0 0 0 0
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10008 13 20 32 38 35
$$
Forecaster...CA
Requested by...Kody Wohlers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415388.0/OAX
.DELDT 05/31/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kwohlers@inhf.org