457
FXUS64 KOHX 232133
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
433 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 421 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

We recently cleared Nashville Metro and areas south of Metro from
the severe watch. It looks like after this early evening batch of
unimpressive storms moves off to the east we will have a
generally quiet evening across the Mid State. Later in the night a
few showers could pop up as wave approaches form the southwest,
but most areas will have quiet conditions with patches of fog
late tonight.

Friday will bring development of scattered storms again. Some of
the storms that bubble up across our area may be briefly severe
during the midday and afternoon and most of the area is under a
marginal risk. There may be a greater severe risk with storms
coming in from the west Friday evening, and SPC has placed our
western counties under a slight risk for this potential. There is
a lot of uncertainty how the various storm areas will develop and
play out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

We are catching a break from the convection at this time. The first
round of showers and tstms just moved off of our northern Plateau.
Mow we are awaiting some development upstream. Also, we are warming
into the lower 80s now and our convective temperatures will be on
approach. Still expecting shower and thunderstorm development a
little later. Capes are quite impressive again today with models
showing up to 3000 j/kg. Thus, strong to severe tstms will again be
possible this afternoon. 850 mb speeds are rather low at 20 kts so
storm structure will need to be sufficient. Otherwise, isolated 2
inch rainfall amounts could pose some flood problems depending on
whether or not previously soaked areas are impacted. Those areas
appear to be our northwest and also areas just west of the northern
Plateau.

Moving on, tonight, a shortwave will arrive late and allow some
convection to redevelop, especially across our south. Following this,
Friday looks somewhat similar to today. A weakening boundary will be
located just to our west by afternoon. But the models are picking up
on some mid and upper level late day ridging. This also transcends to
larger subsidence by late in the day. So, it looks as though we will
see morning convection on into the early to mid afternoon, before
tapering off. Severity of storms will be primarily cape dependent.
So the marginal risk looks reasonable for hail and high winds.

Saturday looks as though we will catch a bit of a break. There will
still be isolated to scattered activity around. The marginal risk
will remain as higher capes are expected in the afternoon.

For the near term temps, warm and muggy. Highs 80s, lows 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

In the extended forecast, a fairly strong frontal boundary with
upper support will move through late Sunday night. With the more
than sufficient instability during the day on Sunday, severe weather
becomes more likely. Furthermore, organization looks likely and
speeds at 850 mb will be in excess of 40 kts. I will say that the
better chance of severe may hold off until evening though when the
pre frontal organization picks up. Damaging winds, large hail and a
few tornadoes will all be possible. Average qpf amounts are just
over a half inch but of course, isolated totals could be in that
1-2 inch range.

Showers and thunderstorms will finally move out of the picture by
late Monday. The following weather pattern looks nicer with a cooler
surface high building southward through the week. The upper levels
keep the deeper troughing to our northeast but the shallow push of
cooler air will still cool our temps down to seasonal levels through
the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Showers and thunderstorms roaming around Middle TN this afternoon.
If one directly affects a mid-state terminal, brief IFR conditions
are possible, along with gusty winds. Otherwise, VFR with light
southwest winds are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      66  83  68  87 /  30  40  50  50
Clarksville    65  83  67  85 /  20  40  40  40
Crossville     61  78  60  81 /  60  50  50  60
Columbia       65  81  65  86 /  30  50  50  50
Cookeville     63  79  63  82 /  60  50  40  60
Jamestown      61  78  61  81 /  70  50  50  60
Lawrenceburg   65  80  66  85 /  30  50  50  50
Murfreesboro   64  83  65  86 /  40  50  40  50
Waverly        64  82  66  85 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Unger