Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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221 FXUS64 KOUN 281114 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 614 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Here we are, back in a stormy pattern, though different from previous weeks. Rather than drylines and cold fronts, this week`s weather is brought to you mainly by warm air advection and northwest flow. At the time of writing, we sit with easterly surface flow and a warm front draped across north Texas from about Sweetwater to Aspermont to Denton. A swath of 3000-4000 joules of MUCAPE is advecting north through western north Texas and set to overspread much of western Oklahoma by morning. With a modest low level jet and moderate deep layer shear developing, we could (20-30% chance; note, CAMs may have a low bias in coverage as is sometimes seen in WAA schemes) see a few storms (including a few strong to severe) develop in this region of warm air advection. These would mainly be elevated hailers. Instability peaks around 12Z, then gradually dwindles north to south through the day. However, this is when upper level support finally gets going across much of the region, allowing for an uptick in showers and storms. With the loss of the low level jet and dwindling instability, severe chances will be on the downtick despite increasing coverage of storms. CAMs depict another round of storms developing late this afternoon / evening off the dryline in western Texas. These storms will make their way eastward through the evening into western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma, though what environment they encounter will depend partly on convection earlier in the day. Most models suggest a lack of instability, limiting the severe risk. Day && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 209 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 As mentioned in the short term, this week`s weather will be largely driven by warm air advection and northwest flow, keeping rain chances in the forecast daily (especially during overnight periods). With sustained southerly flow, moisture and instability will likely remain plentiful through the week (big picture view), though deep layer shear tends to drop off after Tuesday. Flooding may become the bigger issue as we see round after round of rainfall adding up by late week. With all the rain and cloud cover, temperatures will be a bit cooler (highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s), albeit muggy. By this weekend, however, we may see temperatures start to inch back up, though synoptic uncertainty is high. Day && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 24 hours, especially across southwestern Oklahoma and western north Texas (including KSPS, KLAW and near KCSM). Apart from the showers and thunderstorms themselves, VFR conditions are expected in general through the day, but some stratus with MVFR ceilings will become more common overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 63 79 65 / 50 40 60 30 Hobart OK 82 63 80 65 / 70 60 50 40 Wichita Falls TX 83 65 81 66 / 70 60 50 30 Gage OK 81 59 80 62 / 50 50 40 40 Ponca City OK 81 62 80 63 / 30 30 40 20 Durant OK 81 65 80 66 / 50 50 60 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...26