380
FXUS61 KRNK 251848
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems will cross the Great Lakes and
northeast United States through Monday, before pushing a cold
front through the Mid Atlantic region by early Tuesday. While
there will be daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms, the
highest probability of precipitation will be Sunday night and
Monday. The front will lead in drier and cooler weather for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1. Typical summer-like thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening.

2. Stronger storms Sunday afternoon and evening, with more
severe weather possible after dark.

3. Even warmer tomorrow, so wear your sunscreen!

Short wave energy was in the process of crossing the southern
and central Appalachians this afternoon, and a warm and moist
air mass along with orographic lift helping to kick off
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain.
This activity will move east through this afternoon and early
evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating.
The lack of kinematic support at all levels really limits severe
potential. Although we could see an isolated instance of severe
winds or hail in these pulse type thunderstorms, lightning and
moderate rainfall will probably be more of a concern with
plenty of people outside enjoying the holiday weekend.

Overnight lows will be warm with variable cloudiness and light
westerly winds. A dying MCS may reach the Greenbrier and
Shenandoah Valleys in the early morning hours, and there should
also be quite a bit of fog once again with our warm and humid
air mass in place. Highs will warm into the upper 70s to upper
80s.

Sky cover will vary Sunday, with daytime cumulus developing and
deepening. Still we should have enough sunshine to support
shower and thunderstorm development, especially along and west
of the Blue Ridge, in the afternoon and evening. This will be
apart from the stronger and more dynamically forced storms
expected to arrive Monday as a low pressure system moves out of
the Midwest and into the OH/TN Valleys.

Sunday`s more diurnally driven storms will have a shot at
damaging winds, heavy rain, and marginally severe hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
... As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Front on Monday could bring strong storms

2: Things quiet down Tuesday

During the night Sunday and into Monday a strong cold front will
continue to raise precip chances, with a maximum on Monday
afternoon. Some of the highest instability we`ve seen of late
will also be in place over the area on Monday, with models
suggesting 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE over most of the CWA. Ensemble
guidance also agrees on a high probability of enhanced CAPE. As
such Monday is the day we are focusing on for a potential severe
weather outbreak. We currently have a slight risk outlook for
severe weather. Given the wet antecedent conditions from daily
showers and storms since last Thursday, the convective nature of
Monday`s storms could also lend itself to flash flooding due to
heavy rain.

Tuesday will much calmer in the wake of the front, though there
could be a few mountain showers due to an embedded shortwave
rotating around through the backside of a trough axis. East of
the mountains there will be little to no rain.

Temperatures will be above normal in the low to mid 80s through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Largely quiet forecast with cooling temperatures

After Monday`s frontal passage, we will be positioned on the
western side of a mid-level trough, and the eastern side of a
surface high. For most of the week, this will force northerly or
northwesterly flow, and consequently, cold air advection.
Temperatures will be on the decline through Friday, when temps
will be around or a few degrees below normal. The mountains will
have scattered to broken cloud cover due to the flow, and some
isolated diurnal showers could form up Thursday. The surface
high will transition to directly overhead the Mid-Atlantic by
Friday, shutting off rain chances even further.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

Periods of MVFR ceilings are possible through the afternoon and
early evening in SHRA/TSRA. Expect a majority of the thunderstorms
to dissipate quickly after 8PM/00Z. VFR conditions will then
develop everywhere.

More widespread fog will develop in the favored river valleys
and in locations that receive rain through this evening. The fog
will dissipate between 12-14Z. Expect variable mid and high
clouds during the day Sunday before cumulus develops around 16Z.
SHRA/TSRA arrive just beyond this 25/18Z TAF cycle.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Monday. MVFR conditions remain likely with any thunderstorms.
The highest probability of precipitation and associated MVFR
conditions will be Sunday night and Monday. Expect a chance for
heavy rain, hail, damaging winds, and plenty of lightning.

A front will cross through the area sometime Tuesday, turning
winds to the northwest and eventually bringing drier air to
much of the area. A low chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be possible across WV Tuesday and Wednesday, otherwise VFR.


Patchy fog with periods of MVFR/LIFR will be possible in the
mornings near mountain and river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...SH