744
FXUS63 KSGF 031127
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 50-80% chance of scattered thunderstorms today. Highest
  chances late morning through afternoon. Slight risk for
  severe storms with damaging winds the primary concern. Slight
  risk for excessive rainfall which may lead to localized
  flooding.

- Widespread 60-90% chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night.
  Marginal risk for severe storms with a few storms producing
  damaging winds and large hail. Slight risk for excessive
  rainfall which may again lead to localized flooding.

- Warm and muggy conditions through midweek. Drier conditions
  Wednesday through Friday. Pattern chance for the weekend may
  bring slightly cooler temps to the area. Low confidence in
  rain potential for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and
upper air analysis continues to show an overall zonal flow
pattern across the CONUS with a few embedded low amplitude
waves. One wave was moving through Arkansas with another across
Nebraska and Kansas. A much stronger shortwave was moving onto
the coast of Oregon and Washington. A low level jet has become
established from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle into Kansas and
then northeast into Nebraska and Iowa. Surface low pressure has
developed in SE Colorado and a local maxima in the low level jet
in that region has begun to initiate a new MCS across southwest
Kansas. This will be the complex to watch this morning. A
previous MCS has weakened as it moved east into eastern
Nebraska where shear was less.

It was mild and muggy across the area this morning with temps
in the lower 70s and dewpoints in the middle 60s. An inspection
of last nights regional soundings indicated a few things of
importance. One was that PW values have increased into the
1.3-1.4in range across the area with higher values just south of
the area (1.5-1.6in). The other was that warmer air aloft was
spreading east northeast into Oklahoma and southern Kansas
(700mb warm air advection). Lastly, the MCS that went into Texas
and Louisiana has created a CAPE displacement with two distinct
ribbons of higher CAPE. MU CAPES around 2000j/kg existed from
Missouri into Arkansas with a distinct drop off across southern
Kansas into eastern Oklahoma, perhaps due to subsidence from the
MCV down there. Further west, a CAPE gradient existed from SW
Kansas into central Oklahoma. All of these features will play
into the overall convective and hydro scenarios today.

Today: The developing MCS across southwest Kansas continues to
organize and as it develops a cold pool it should continue a
east to southeast movement which follows the forward propagating
vectors. If it doesn`t develop a stronger cold pool then it may
slide more southeast into central Oklahoma, which would also ride
that CAPE gradient. Additional isolated development may occur
further northeast across central Kansas where leftover
boundaries exist from the previous MCS to the north. 00z HREF
guidance and latest radar trends supports the southern Kansas
cluster approaching southeast Kansas and far southwest Missouri
this morning, mainly after 8-9am. Most guidance tends to take
the bulk of this activity across Oklahoma however areas along
and west of a Nevada to Cassville line will likely experience
this activity to some extent. Wind shear looks to be fairly
weak (less than 25kts) therefore most storms will be subsevere
with gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall.

As we progress through the mid morning and early afternoon
hours, areas that are not affected by this morning cluster will
continue to destabilize and models push an outflow boundary
into the area on the northeast side of that cluster which will
likely be enough to develop additional scattered thunderstorms.
Forecast soundings indicate continued weak shear but
potentially 3000j/kg of MU CAPE along with 0-3km thetaE diffs of
25-30K. Therefore damaging winds will become a concern with
those storms. Given the high moisture content and slow storm
motions, localized pockets of flooding could occur as well. 00z
HREF LPMM is showing very localized (less than a county size)
amounts of 2-5 inches of rainfall with most areas seeing an inch
or less. A few areas could miss out entirely. Latest soil
moisture imagery suggests areas just east of Springfield are the
most susceptible to flooding given previous heavy rainfall
there. Therefore will need to monitor this area closely.
Confidence is just not high enough for a Flood Watch given the
extremely localized nature of the storms.

This Evening into the overnight hours: Remaining scattered
storms will be ongoing, mainly east of Highway 65 however a
downward trend should occur by sunset as instability wanes along
with what could be some subsidence behind this activity. The
overnight scenario is highly uncertain due to the complexities
of this weak flow regime. Most model guidance redevelops the low
level jet again tonight but keeps the bulk of it south of the
area across Oklahoma. The NAM is the most bullish and farther
north and redevelops more widespread showers and storms across
Kansas and moves them east into the area. This is an outlier at
the moment as the 00z HREF indicates only a few scattered storms
across the area overnight at best. Given these uncertainties
have kept precip chances in at 30 percent or less overnight and
will need to reassess with future updates.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Tuesday through Wednesday: The strong shortwave currently
moving into the NW US will slide east into the northern Plains
by Tuesday. This will begin to drive a front southeast towards
the area. Before the front arrives, high instability and subtle
energy may fire off some scattered showers and thunderstorms
however the coverage is still uncertain. Some area may remain
dry during the day with most areas seeing highs reach the lower
to middle 80s. Dewpoints around 70 will create very humid/muggy
conditions.

By Tuesday night, the cold front will begin to approach the area
from the northwest which will increase lift for more widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Slightly stronger shear could create
a few severe storms, especially just northwest of the area. A
renewed locally heavy rainfall signal is also present given the
high PW airmass. Latest NBM is showing 75% chances of at least
0.50 inch rainfall across a majority of the area during this
time frame therefore will need to monitor for flooding and
perhaps a Flood Watch can be considered in future updates if the
area can be pin pointed down further along with seeing where
the highest amounts fall today. The front will be clearing the
area Wednesday morning therefore areas southeast of I-44 may see
linger rain in the morning however clearing is likely by
afternoon along with lower dewpoints (upper 50s to around 60).

Thursday through Friday: The upper level trough will continue
moving east into the Great Lakes region with a secondary front
moving into the area. This will reinforce a slightly drier
airmass as northwest flow aloft develops. Precip chances remain
less than 20 percent these days.

The Weekend: A rather large ridge looks to develop across the
southwest US however significant ensemble variances exist.
This is mainly due to the developing blocky nature of the
pattern. While the area will be susceptible to disturbances
moving down the flow into the area, pinpointing these is
difficult at this time. Given that ensemble clusters are not in
agreement, NBM pops around 30 percent this weekend seems prudent
at this juncture. This will also have an impact on temps. NBM
high temp spreads are around 10 degrees however the trend/signal
is for near to slightly below average range (upper 70s to around
80).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Confidence is high that showers and thunderstorms will move into
the area this morning, lasting into the afternoon hours. Brief
MVFR ceilings may occur with these storms. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail outside of storms. Winds will remain
southerly through the period. There is a 30 percent chance of
thunderstorms tonight and have prob30 groups at the sites.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield