544
FXUS64 KSHV 260313
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Warm and breezy evening with air temps still in the low to mid
80s. Our dew points are in the mid to upper 70s and thats where
lows will end up. SHV only dropped to 78 last night setting a new
record baring a pop up thunderstorm between now and 1 a.m.
(midnight standard). Likewise we will see mid to upper 70s to
start our Sunday mornings in most cases. We do have and will stick
with slight chance pops in our I-30 corridor overnight as a low
swings energy across E OK and W AR overnight. So far most of the
convection in N OK, but one rouge severe thunderstorm is rolling
down the Red River Valley and could outflow assist some new
development. No changes to current forecast needed at this time.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A strong cold front will begin to move into our northern zones by
Monday morning before gradually pushing through the rest of the
area during the day. It may be slow enough that some severe
weather could develop across our southern zones for a change by
Monday afternoon. Right now there is a Marginal Risk for strong to
severe thunderstorms across portions of deep east Texas and
central Louisiana. Will need to continue to monitor this potential
over the next few days as there remains some uncertainty.

I don`t want to say that Monday will be our last chance for severe
weather for the upcoming week, but right now it is the last day we
are outlooked by the SPC. And by Thursday, they move to a
"potential too low" statement for the entire CONUS. That being
said, we do still have daily PoPs in the forecast for most of next
week, however, thinking that most of that activity will be
diurnally driven, hence the lack of outlooks at this time. But
with us heading into the dog days of summer at a rapid rate, I am
sure we will take all the rain we can get at this time.

As for temperatures, we will see some "relief" from the heat for
next week. Granted we will still see afternoon highs in the 80s
and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but this is "cooler" than
the 90s we are seeing right now. In addition, maximum heat index
values should remain suppressed for the most part through the
upcoming week.

/33/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

For the 26/00Z TAF period, VFR conditions largely prevail early
this evening except for some slight vsby reductions in East Texas
due to haze. Cu field should quickly diminish with the setting sun
while cirrus will persist overnight from upstream convection over
North Central Texas and Oklahoma. Stratus should return closer to
daybreak on Sunday and linger through mid to late morning before
VFR conditions return by the afternoon. Any convection should be
isolated at best through the end of the period before increasing
just beyond 27/00Z. Breezy south winds this evening will persist
overnight and increase further on Sunday with speeds of 15-20 kts
and higher gusts near 25-30 kts.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  94  75  95 /  10  20  20   0
MLU  75  94  73  94 /  10  10  30  10
DEQ  70  89  66  91 /  30  10  20   0
TXK  73  93  71  93 /  10  10  30   0
ELD  72  92  71  93 /  10  10  30  10
TYR  75  93  74  93 /  10  10   0  10
GGG  75  92  74  94 /  10  10  10   0
LFK  75  94  75  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19