251
FXUS64 KSJT 021721
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible
this afternoon and evening...

Satellite and radar images indicate the MCS/MCV feature moving
eastward across portions of the northwest Hill Country early this
morning. Isolated convection across portions of Menard and Concho
counties has diminished in the last hour as the outflow boundary
from the thunderstorms across the northern Edwards Plateau earlier
this evening continues to move northeast across eastern portions
of the Concho Valley into the Heartland. May see some isolated
showers or thunderstorms develop along the outflow boundary early
this morning but storms should remain below severe limits.

The latest NAM and GFS model runs prog a weak shortwave trough in
the westerly flow aloft moving eastward across west Texas this
afternoon into this evening. At the surface...the dryline across
west Texas will provide a focus for thunderstorms to develop later
today into tonight. SPC has the western counties of our CWA under
a slight risk for severe weather today and tonight with a
marginal risk across the rest of the CWA except across portions of
the northwest Hill Country. The main severe weather hazards
expected with severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening are
large hail and damaging winds...mainly across the western portions
of the CWA.

Temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across the Heartland to the lower to mid 90s across the
I-10 corridor. Lows will be in the lower to mid 70s across most of
the

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A few models are hinting at the possibility of convection in our
area Monday evening. The dry line is expected to push east into
our western counties by the late afternoon and early evening.
Dewpoints ahead of the dry line could be in the low to mid 70s,
although there is a bit of disagreement on this in the high res
models, with some models showing dewpoints in the mid 70s and some
in the low 60s. This will have a significant impact on potential
development. If the dewpoints do in fact remain high and an upper
level disturbance moves through in the evening, like some models
are showing, we could see thunderstorms. With the extensive CAPE
values and mid level lapse rates that could be in place, there
will be the potential for severe storms. This is all conditional
on the dew points and location of the disturbance however.

Some good news and bad news for the rest of the long term. The
good news is that the chance for severe weather will be lower this
next week. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to go
back into the upper 90s and 100s for much of next week. A large
upper level ridge will start to build over the western half of the
United States on Tuesday, leading to above normal temperatures
for much of the long term. Heat index values could exceed 105
degrees in some areas for Tuesday through Thursday, leading to an
increased risk of heat impacts. Precipitation chances will start
to increase on Friday as an upper low develops off to our west,
breaking down the ridge slightly and sending some upper level

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Most sites have not improved to VFR early this afternoon, but KJCT
and KBBD continue to hang on to high end MVFR ceilings. Expect
these to lift or scatter out with some additional warming over the
next couple hours. We will have another chance for scattered
afternoon and evening TSRA, with the best chances near KABI and
KBBD. Have addressed these chances with some VCTS groups at those
sites. Expect the thunderstorm activity to end around 06Z.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move back in again early Monday
morning, with generally south to southeast winds from 10 to 15
knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     72  94  72 101 /  30  10   0   0
San Angelo  73 100  73 104 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    75  99  75 103 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood   72  91  71  96 /  20  10  10   0
Sweetwater  72  97  73 101 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       73  96  72 101 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       72  92  73  96 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...20