847
FXUS01 KWBC 012004
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Jun 02 2024 - 00Z Tue Jun 04 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday and over parts of the
Central High Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and Northern/Central Plains on Sunday and the
Northern Intermountain Region on Monday...

...There are Heat Advisories over western Texas...

Moisture streaming northward over the Plains and a dryline over
western Texas will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.
Therefore, through Sunday morning, the SPC has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central/Southern
High Plains.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gust, of 65 knots or greater and hail, two
inches or greater over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.
Moreover, there is a second area of hail, two inches or greater,
over parts of western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

Further, upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Western Gulf Coast through Sunday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast, creating heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains, creating heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, a cold front extending from the Northern Plains to the
Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley by Monday, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central
High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition,
there is a threat of severe thunderstorm wind gust, of 65 knots or
greater.

Moreover, a second area of severe thunderstorms will also occur
over the Southern High Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the
Southern High Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain over
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi
Valley and Northern/Central Plains from Sunday through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall will decrease slightly over the Middle/Mississippi Valley
and Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, there will be a Moderate
Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over the area.

Meanwhile, onshore flow and a steady stream of upper-level energy
over the Pacific Northwest will trigger rain and snow melt over
parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain
Region from early Saturday into Monday. On Sunday the rainfall
will increase, therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Pacific Northwest
from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Additionally, the heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region from Sunday through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, on Monday, the rain and snow melt will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Monday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging over southern Texas
will aid in spawning Heat Advisories over Western Texas.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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