842
FXUS01 KWBC 290754
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

Valid 12Z Wed May 29 2024 - 12Z Fri May 31 2024

...Active central U.S. weather pattern to continue, with heavy
rains, flash flooding, and severe weather possible...

...Anomalous heat continues across far southern Texas and Florida,
while hot temperatures begin to build in the Southwest and
interior California Valleys...

The active and stormy weather pattern impacting the central U.S.
is set to continue over the next few days while also expanding in
coverage to include much of the Great Plains, middle and lower
Mississippi Valley. For today, a cold front progressing across the
Northern Rockies and central Great Basin in response to a
Northwest upper trough will help spark numerous thunderstorms into
the northern Plains and parts of the central High Plains. A few
scattered storms could contain intense rainfall rates, hail, and
damaging winds. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible along a
lingering stationary front extending along the Gulf Coast and
southern Plains, which have greater chances of producing instances
of flash flooding due to thunderstorms overlapping with saturated
ground conditions. As upper troughing enters the Great Plains on
Thursday, even more rounds of slow-moving tumultuous thunderstorm
clusters are anticipated. This leads to a broad region at risk for
hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding from Kansas and eastern
Colorado to north-central Texas. This activity is then forecast to
gradually slide eastward on Friday to impact the ArkLaTex region,
as well as extending into the mid-Mississippi Valley and southern
Plains once again. Flash flooding will remain a concern due to the
relatively slow-moving nature of thunderstorms occurring within a
moisture rich environment. Widespread areal-averaged rainfall
totals by the end of the week are forecast to add up to over 2
inches throughout much of Kansas, Oklahoma, northern Texas,
southern Arkansas, and northern Louisiana, with localized amounts
over 4 inches possible.

Simmering heat is expected to continue for much of the central and
southern Florida Peninsula as highs reach into the mid-90s, which
may tied/break daily record highs today. Highs also returning to
the upper 90s are forecast along the Rio Grande Valley of southern
Texas after early morning thunderstorms. However, a larger area of
hot weather will begin to build throughout the Southwest and
interior California valleys by the end of the week. Afternoon
temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits can be expected.

Elsewhere, high pressure stretching from the Great Lakes to the
Southeast will keep most areas east of the Mississippi River dry
with the exception of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast
today. A compact storm system will be swinging eastward over the
Mid-Atlantic and produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
main weather hazards associated with these storms are forecast to
be associated with lighting and locally heavy rain.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$