692
FXUS01 KWBC 022001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Jun 02 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 03 2024 - 00Z Wed Jun 05 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central High Plains on Sunday and a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi
Valley on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley, Northern/Central Plains, and Southern Plains
on Sunday and the Northern Intermountain Region along with
Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Plains on
Tuesday...

...There are Heat Advisories over western/southern Texas and
Central California...

A cold front over parts of the Northern/Central Plains will become
quasi-stationary by Monday. The front will produce showers and
severe thunderstorms over parts of Central Plains. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Central Plains through Monday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. In addition, there is a threat of severe thunderstorm
wind gust, of 65 knots or greater over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains. Moreover, there will be an area of
hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the Northern Plains and
Central/Southern High Plains.

Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains,
creating heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Southern Plains, creating heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

On Monday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves east of the
dryline as upper-level energy moves over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Moreover, the energy that produces the showers and thunderstorms
will cause heavy rain over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains from Monday through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease
slightly over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central
Plains. Therefore, there will be a Moderate Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the area.

However, the threat of excessive rainfall will continue over the
Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

 Meanwhile, onshore flow and a steady stream of upper-level energy
over the Pacific Northwest will trigger rain and snow melt over
parts of the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain
Region from Sunday into Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Pacific Northwest through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Additionally, the heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.

Moreover, heavy rain and snow melt will develop over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region on Monday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region from Monday into Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, a developing upper-level ridging will build over
California and continue over southern/western Texas, aiding in
spawning Heat Advisories over western/southern Texas and Central
California.



Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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