409
FXUS01 KWBC 241957
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Valid 00Z Sat May 25 2024 - 00Z Mon May 27 2024

...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the
Midwest to the Southern Plains tonight...

...Next round of severe weather to develop across the
Central/Southern Plains Saturday evening before shifting into
parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Ohio Valleys on Sunday...

...Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across
South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial
Day...

The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue
through the holiday weekend as two separate systems are
anticipated to be responsible for numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the middle of the Nation. A low pressure
system with an attached cold front extends from the Upper Midwest
to the Southern Plains and should maintain a focus for showers and
thunderstorms to develop. Along the cold front as it extends
southward, storms could turn severe from the Midwest to the
southern Plains. This same cold front could slow it`s forward
momentum and allow for thunderstorms to potentially train over
parts of, central-western Tennessee, southwestern Kentucky,
northwestern Alabama, southern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi,
northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to the threat of
scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may
dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee
Valley.

The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the
Great Plains is expected to spark another round of severe weather
Saturday evening in the Central/Southern Plains. At the surface,
low pressure forming in the lee of the Central Rockies is forecast
to lift a warm front northward into the Central Plains and
Mid-Mississippi Valley, while a sharp dryline extends southward
into the Southern Plains. These features combined with a
strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn severe,
with a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few
tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center
has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms
across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to
highlight the threat. As clusters of storms move eastward with the
low pressure system on Sunday, the flash flooding and severe
weather will also shift into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash flooding will all be
possible. Residents and visitors located within the threat for
severe weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of
receiving warnings and to continue to check for the latest
forecast.

Elsewhere, heat remains the main weather story along the Gulf
Coast, South Texas, and southern Florida. The hottest locations
are expected throughout South Texas into late this weekend as
highs soar above the century mark, with heat indices up to 120
degrees possible. Temperatures into the upper 90s are anticipated
to spread into much of Texas on Saturday and Sunday as well. High
heat indices will also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region and
South Florida, while also potentially breaking a few record high
temperatures. Warm overnight conditions will provide little to no
relief for those without adequate or reliable cooling.

Kebede/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$