755
FXUS62 KTBW 021348
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
948 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Increased moisture today along with an upper level trough pushing
over the state will allow for better storm chances with the
highest PoPs south of I-4. The extra rain and cloud cover will
help to keep temperatures away from any records but highs will
still be around 90 degrees. No changes need to the forecast at
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level trough is expected to move over the region today
with additional energy to combine with the afternoon seabreeze
boundaries to produce a chance of showers and thunderstorms areawide
with highest PoPs in coastal areas from SW into S Tampa Bay area.

W Atlantic surface high pressure to remain in place and weaken
next week with mean layer moisture increasing. Models have backed
off on upper ridging and now only briefing nudging into the region
Tuesday before general troughiness returns aloft mid to late week
with next upper trough slowly moving thru the Eastern US.

This set up would allow for a more typical early summer scattered
afternoon/evening storms and seabreeze pattern for much needed
rainfall. But this solution carries some uncertainty with the
ongoing persistent drought pattern and NBM wet bias to keep PoPs
trimmed a bit and will see how the models progress in time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 805 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be the biggest hazard to
terminals today as thunderstorm chances have gone up. Highest
confidence for thunderstorms on station will be at FMY and RSW
where a TEMPO line was added but all terminals have a chance of
seeing thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure is expected to weaken and move into the Western Atlantic
through the early part of the week with generally light winds except
during the occasionally gusty evening easterly surges. The afternoon
Gulf seabreeze is expected to move inland and produce isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms daily that move back towards
the coast in the evenings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will weaken and remain over the region into next week
with the warm conditions continuing along with a slow increase in
low level moisture. The afternoon Gulf seabreeze is expected to
move inland and produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  75  92  76 /  50  60  40  20
FMY  92  72  93  74 /  60  60  60  40
GIF  92  72  93  72 /  50  50  50  10
SRQ  91  72  93  74 /  60  60  40  30
BKV  91  69  94  69 /  40  40  40  10
SPG  91  77  92  79 /  50  60  40  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 6

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Flannery