169
FXXX10 KWNP 011231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jun 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 01-Jun 03 2024

             Jun 01       Jun 02       Jun 03
00-03UT       2.33         2.67         1.67
03-06UT       1.33         2.00         1.33
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         1.33
09-12UT       1.33         2.00         1.33
12-15UT       3.00         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         2.00         1.33
18-21UT       5.67 (G2)    2.00         1.67
21-00UT       4.67 (G1)    2.00         1.67

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01
Jun due to CME activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024

              Jun 01  Jun 02  Jun 03
S1 or greater   25%     25%     25%

Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over
01-03 Jun.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jun 01 2024 0848 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 01-Jun 03 2024

              Jun 01        Jun 02        Jun 03
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   35%           35%           35%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater activity, over 01-03 Jun.