Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
626
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 29-May 31 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 29-May 31 2024
May 29 May 30 May 31
00-03UT 0.67 3.00 1.67
03-06UT 1.33 2.67 1.33
06-09UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
09-12UT 1.67 1.67 1.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.33
15-18UT 4.00 1.67 1.33
18-21UT 4.00 2.00 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.67
Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) storming on 29 May with any
shock arrival from the 27 May CME.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 29-May 31 2024
May 29 May 30 May 31
S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 31 May primarily due to
the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 29 2024 1121 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 29-May 31 2024
May 29 May 30 May 31
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely, while a
chance remains for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts through 31 May.