485
FXUS63 KTOP 031111
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
611 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chances for additional storms today, generally south of
Interstate 70.  A few stronger storms capable of hail and gusty
winds cannot be ruled out.

- Highest chances for precip area wide are Tuesday afternoon and
evening as a cold front sweeps through the region. A few may be
severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Remnants of the decaying MCS and residual outflow boundary is
progressing southeastward through northeast Kansas at the current
hour. As the MCS entered a lesser favorable environment with the
weakening effective bulk shear in northeast KS, the cluster became
outflow dominant and dissipated. A secondary MCS has developed over
southwest Kansas, generally moving east southeast. It appears to be
favoring the elevated instability gradient, progged to track across
southern KS this morning, possibly clipping southern Lyon, Coffey,
and Anderson counties after sunrise albeit more likely to stay
south. There`s indication of a possible MCV that forms from this
cluster with additional development expected late afternoon  into the
evening hours, although models remain varied on the timing and
coverage of convection by 00Z tonight. The latest NAM is the most
robust with widespread convection developing this evening on the
nose of the LLJ, whereas most CAMs are more scattered in nature and
confined to OK. Plan is to maintain low chance pops for isolated
storms in the afternoon, generally south of I-70. With a strong
capping layer in place, convection would be elevated with a risk for
hail and gusty winds mainly.

Tuesday afternoon and evening is still looking promising for
convection to form along an approaching cold front from the
northwest. As sfc dewpoints rise to near 70 degrees, buoyancy
amplifies with sfc cape values from 3000-4000 J/KG by 21Z. Upper
level support from the shortwave trough axis in NE lends towards
higher pops over far northeast Kansas while more isolated storms are
anticipated further south. Given decent wind profiles as well, any
storms that develop will have the risk for very large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Isolated cells could pose a low tornado risk,
but that should quickly subside as convection congeals into a line
and races southeast through the evening hours.

Convection exits by Wednesday morning, returning dry conditons to
the area through Friday as upper ridge amplifies over the Inter-
Mountain West. Overnight MCS clusters Friday evening and Saturday
evening could potentially clip western portions of the area. Spread
amongst the long term ensemble guidance however is high on QPF with
low confidence for slight chances of thunderstorms at best.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR prevails at terminals with broken mid clouds gradually
scattering out by mid afternoon. Overall short term guidance has
the clusters of TSRA (southeast and central KS) passing west and
south of the terminals, therefore confidence is not high enough
to add the mention. If storms pass closer to the terminals, I
would expect lower stratus in the 035-050 range after 14Z into
the afternoon period.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto