228
FXUS63 KTOP 021118
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While not a complete washout, several chances for thunderstorms
continue through Tuesday evening.

- Most likely widespread precip chances are on Sunday evening and
Tuesday evening along the cold front.

- Few storms could be marginally strong to severe with damaging
  wind gusts and large hail as the main hazards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Active pattern this morning with several clusters of storms
stretching from the Dakotas to Texas. Embedded perturbation
traversing through KS this morning has aided in a line of storms
forming near the theta-e gradient (west of highway 75 in central KS)
accompanied by 1500 J/G of MUCAPE and around 25-40 kts of effective
shear. The southerly LLJ has aided in isolated updrafts producing
severe hail, but otherwise are expected to move into a more stable
environment and should gradually weaken by sunrise across far
eastern KS. CAMs continue to struggle with storm coverage and
tracking given the weaker upper forcing aloft through the short term
period, leading to less than average confidence in storm development
through the morning and afternoon periods. Overall indications that
weak height rises and a decent capping layer should inhibit
afternoon convection. On another note, low level moisture increases
this afternoon as southerly winds become gusty from 15 to 20 mph,
gusting to 30 mph. Dewpoints peak near 70 degrees along with highs
in the 80s, creating warm and humid conditions through at least
Tuesday.

Another round of more widespread strong to severe storms is
anticipated to form across western KS and western NE late today
before tracking eastward into north central KS in the late evening
hours. Models vary somewhat on the development of a secondary MCS
over southern KS or OK that could persist over east central KS into
Monday morning. Initial storms will have between 2000-3000 J/KG of
MUCAPE as they impact north central Kansas so large hail along with
damaging wind gusts are possible. As the elevated instability wanes
to around 1000 J/KG by Monday morning, damaging wind gusts become
the main hazard for the remaining area.

CAMs are showing a persistent signal of a residual boundary that
sets up over far northeast Kansas on Monday afternoon that may lead
to isolated storm development. Coverage overall should be limited so
have maintained the low chance pops through the overnight hours as
there may be another MCS that impacts southeast Kansas late Monday
night.

A stronger northern stream upper trough accompanied by a cold front
increases confidence in a line of storms forming late Tuesday
afternoon and evening directly over northeast Kansas before shifting
southeast. Highest pops of the forecast (above 70%)with latest
ensemble guidance focusing convection east of highway 75, quickly
moving southeast into early Wednesday morning.

Upper ridging to the west finally signals a drier period from
Wednesday onward as temperatures and humidity lower by Thursday as
highs reach around 80 degrees. Operational ECMWF depicts an embedded
trough within the northwest flow bringing precip back to the area
this weekend while the GFS is dry throughout the region. For now,
slight chance pops seem to make sense until better consistency is
realized.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR expected with a low chance for MVFR conditions if a heavier
thunderstorm moves over terminals this morning. Overall
instability is decreasing so opted for VCTS at KTOP/KFOE with
some uncertainty on TSRA to the west maintaining itself to
impact terminals. TSRA currently at KMHK should be clear to the
east by 12Z. A second line of TSRA observed in central KS
should gradually weaken east through 17Z, despite some models
trying to bring the remnant showers and TSRA through the area.
Plan to maintain SHRA with VCTS mention for this scenario thru
17Z. Clouds should scatter out by 21Z west to east. A cluster of
TSRA may impact terminals in the 06-12Z time frame with much
uncertainty on timing and impacts this far out.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto