Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
000
FXUS65 KABQ 161623 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1023 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
NMDOT webcams and observations at automated weather stations are
showing freezing fog lifting and temperatures rising to or above
freezing in the highlands from Las Vegas southward to Ruidoso,
including the Sandia/Manzano Mountains. Therefore, the Freezing
Fog Advisory has been cancelled.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
An extended period of unsettled weather will continue to provide
beneficial precipitation across the Land of Enchantment. An upper
level system currently parked over the southwest United States is
forecast to meander west of the state until Tuesday, then it will
receive encouragement to drift east thanks to an upstream system.
The higher chances for rain and snow showers should occur Saturday
night through Monday coupled with another round of gap winds as a
cold front races westward towards Arizona. Snow levels throughout
this period should range from 6,000 to 7,500 feet with the highest
accumulations in the northern mountains, where hazardous travel is
expected. Lighter amounts are forecast over the northeast and east
central highlands as well as the western Continental Divide. Snow
levels Tuesday through Wednesday will be higher, ranging from 7,500
to 8,500 feet, thus impacts will be minimal over lower elevations.
This storm will finally depart eastern New Mexico Wednesday night,
with weak disturbances clipping the northern mountains during the
latter part of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The latest water vapor imagery indicates a well pronounced Rex
block across the western US, with the upper high over the Pacific
NW and British Columbia and the pesky upper low over western AZ.
A round of precipitation is ongoing across western NM, with snow
levels around 6,500ft. Areas of dense freezing fog are developing
across the Central Highlands, the Northeast Highlands west through
Glorieta Pass, in the South Central Mountains and along the east
slopes of the Sandias/Manzanos. Issued a Freezing Fog Advisory to
highlight the potential for hazardous driving conditions including
very low visibility of one quarter mile or less and icing of
elevated surfaces. The current round of precipitation is forecast
to focus over the north central mountains later today, so have
upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for those zones. We cancelled the
watch for the Sandia/Manzano mountains due to warmer temperatures
forecast there which will limit impacts to those population
centers. A Winter Weather Advisory may be required later for the
Sandia/Manzano Mountains given a more significant round of
precipitation forecast to develop late tonight into Sunday morning
across central NM as the upper low wobbles east toward the NM
border and provides added forcing. The 00Z model solutions are
notably bullish with the qpf for late tonight through Sunday across
central NM and this is reflected in the very high MOS PoPs for
sites such as KABQ. Given the upper low is filling and the frontal
layer is modifying, snow levels will be relatively high Sunday,
likely closer to 7000-7500ft. High temperatures will persist 15-25
degrees below normal through the weekend due to cloud cover and
evaporative cooling of the lower boundary layer. Lastly, the gusty
east canyon wind persist at KABQ, but will trend down more today
only to reinvigorate late tonight into Sunday with the upper low
drawing closer.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
While the upr low can be deemed as "pesky", this is actually rather
beneficial to the high terrain snow pack and upcoming spring runoff
season. With this feature cutoff from the upper level flow and even
retrograding for a period of time, it is extremely impressive to see
the high degree of consistency in the deterministic/ensembles models
through the mid-week period. Main forecast challenge will be focused
around location and coverage of highest precipitation chances.
Sunday night will feature the beginning of the retrogration process
for the 561dam 500hPa low. Low level ely flow will have made its way
beyond the Continental Divide, possibly as far west as eastern AZ. A
combination of low-level convergence/upslope as well as upper level
divergence provides vertical ascent along an axis favoring the west
central Continental Divide, Upper Gila and south central mts. Expect
snow levels to gradually fall from 7,500 to 6,500 feet. There should
also be enough instability during the early evening to support isold
lightning strikes.
For Monday, the upr low gradually fills to around 563dam and pays a
visit to southwest Arizona. The synoptic setup doesn`t look too much
different with the diffluent sector and low level forcing focused in
eastern AZ into the Upper Gila and possibly the south central zones.
An axis of slightly negative LIs are progged across the western mts,
thus a couple of lightning strikes cannot be ruled out. The upr low
will finally get a boot eastward late Tuesday afternoon compliments
of an upstream trough entering the PacNW. 500hPA heights were nearly
two standard deviations below normal on Friday; however, by Tuesday,
heights should be near 1979-2009 CFSR climatology. 700hPa temps will
also warm 3C to 5C, or slightly below zero on Wednesday. Therefore,
as the upper low traverses northern New Mexico Tuesday night through
Wednesday, snow levels will be nearly one thousand feet higher. This
system will say goodbye to New Mexico Wednesday night, with clearing
skies expected in its wake.
Low amplitude ridge will quickly move across the forecast area Thu,
then zonal flow will evolve for the latter portion of the week. This
will allow a few weak perturbations to traverse northern New Mexico,
offering some light/brief orographic precipitation. While outside of
this forecast package, the deterministic GFS20/ECMWF depict a rather
deep trough impacting the southern Rockies next Sunday. Naturally, a
Day-8/9 forecast comes with a higher degree of uncertainty, but only
30 pct of ensemble members depict well below normal heights over NM.
Another 20 pct of members are further west and less amplified, while
the remaining 40 pct suggest above normal heights across NM and the
trough hovering over the eastern Pacific. DPorter
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Showers will impact central and eastern terminals though the
morning hours with MVFR to IFR conditions. KROW is currently LIFR
and no improvement is forecast until afternoon. Showers will
impact western and central NM late this afternoon and overnight,
bringing MVFR and some short-lived IFR conditions. Although some
improvement is forecast this afternoon, deterioration is forecast
overnight. Widespread mountain obscurations will persist through
the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 211 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. A nearly stationary upper level low over AZ
and a cold front already in place across NM will work together to
bring high humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation going
through the weekend. Warmer temperatures from early to mid week will
help to destabilize the atmosphere as the upper low moves slowly east
across the region, brining more wetting showers and the potential for
lightning. A drying trend will begin Thursday after the upper low
moves off to the east and daytime temperatures will rise to near
normal. The westerlies will trend up Fri/Sat, bringing breezy and
warmer conditions with improved ventilation.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 50 32 50 32 / 60 40 40 20
Dulce........................... 45 27 48 19 / 80 70 50 30
Cuba............................ 44 29 42 24 / 70 70 70 40
Gallup.......................... 46 24 46 22 / 30 30 60 50
El Morro........................ 41 24 40 27 / 40 30 80 60
Grants.......................... 43 25 40 25 / 50 30 70 50
Quemado......................... 43 26 44 28 / 40 20 80 50
Magdalena....................... 47 32 43 32 / 50 70 70 60
Datil........................... 42 27 42 29 / 40 50 60 60
Reserve......................... 49 26 51 25 / 40 20 40 50
Glenwood........................ 54 34 56 37 / 30 20 30 40
Chama........................... 41 25 43 18 / 80 70 60 30
Los Alamos...................... 43 31 42 28 / 70 70 70 40
Pecos........................... 42 30 41 26 / 60 70 80 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 41 29 40 28 / 60 70 60 40
Red River....................... 34 22 36 16 / 70 70 70 50
Angel Fire...................... 33 22 35 10 / 70 70 70 50
Taos............................ 45 26 45 20 / 60 60 60 40
Mora............................ 38 26 37 22 / 60 60 70 40
Espanola........................ 49 32 49 27 / 60 60 50 30
Santa Fe........................ 45 32 43 29 / 70 60 70 50
Santa Fe Airport................ 47 32 45 30 / 70 60 70 40
Albuquerque Foothills........... 48 37 46 37 / 70 60 80 50
Albuquerque Heights............. 51 37 48 36 / 60 60 70 50
Albuquerque Valley.............. 52 38 50 35 / 70 60 70 40
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 36 49 35 / 70 60 70 40
Belen........................... 55 36 52 33 / 70 50 70 60
Bernalillo...................... 51 36 49 36 / 70 60 80 40
Bosque Farms.................... 54 36 51 33 / 70 60 70 50
Corrales........................ 51 36 50 35 / 70 60 70 40
Los Lunas....................... 54 37 51 34 / 70 60 70 50
Placitas........................ 47 35 44 35 / 70 70 80 50
Rio Rancho...................... 50 35 48 35 / 70 60 70 40
Socorro......................... 57 38 54 38 / 60 50 70 50
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 39 32 38 32 / 70 70 80 60
Tijeras......................... 40 32 39 32 / 70 70 80 50
Edgewood........................ 40 31 38 30 / 70 70 70 50
Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 31 40 27 / 70 70 70 50
Clines Corners.................. 39 29 36 25 / 60 70 80 60
Mountainair..................... 45 32 40 30 / 60 70 70 70
Gran Quivira.................... 48 33 43 29 / 50 60 70 70
Carrizozo....................... 53 38 51 36 / 30 50 60 70
Ruidoso......................... 45 33 44 31 / 30 60 80 80
Capulin......................... 40 27 40 21 / 30 60 40 30
Raton........................... 42 29 44 21 / 30 70 50 30
Springer........................ 44 31 43 22 / 30 40 50 30
Las Vegas....................... 39 28 37 24 / 50 60 70 40
Clayton......................... 50 35 49 28 / 20 20 30 10
Roy............................. 45 33 42 26 / 30 40 50 40
Conchas......................... 49 37 46 31 / 30 50 70 40
Santa Rosa...................... 47 34 42 30 / 30 60 80 50
Tucumcari....................... 50 37 46 31 / 30 40 60 40
Clovis.......................... 50 39 48 35 / 50 30 70 50
Portales........................ 51 38 50 34 / 50 30 60 50
Fort Sumner..................... 51 38 46 34 / 20 50 80 60
Roswell......................... 54 45 52 42 / 20 50 70 70
Picacho......................... 47 39 47 34 / 30 60 70 70
Elk............................. 47 37 49 31 / 20 50 60 70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Sunday night for NMZ210-
211-213>215-227.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...11