Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS65 KABQ 150517 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1117 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A winter storm system developing over Arizona and New Mexico is
expected to stall over the region for the next several days. This
will support several rounds of heavy snow and precipitation to New
Mexico through early next week. The next round of precipitation
is expected late tonight through much of Friday. A strong cold
front is in the process of pushing through the eastern Plains and
will push across the Central Mountain Chain tonight. The front
will not only enhance precipitation and snow but also cause high
winds across central New Mexico including Albuquerque and the
Continental Divide. Strong winds may also extend all the way to
the Four Corners Region. Light precipitation is expected on
Saturday with higher amounts of rain and snow expected Sunday into
Monday. This may mean that winter storm warnings are extended
into early next week. The storm system may move out of the region
mid week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

It`s been a pretty quiet Pi Day for most. The one exception has been
across far northeast NM behind a backdoor front, where low clouds,
patchy fog and snow up at Raton and Raton Pass has resulted in
difficult travel conditions. The Winter Storm Warning is in effect
across Raton Pass and the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. The well
advertised cutoff upper low has now parked itself south of Las
Vegas, NV over the CA Inland Empire. Upper level divergence ahead of
the 545 dm upper low is resulting in the development of some weak
echos and light showers across the higher terrain of western and
northern NM. These reflectivity echos across western and northwest
NM will continue to intensity heading into the evening and overnight
hours with a widespread area of lower elevation rain and higher
elevation snow as upper level divergence, WAA and CVA ahead of the
stationary upper low. The area of precip will be assisted from
rising motion at the equatorial entrance of a 70 kt jet streak
across Colorado and at the poleward exit region of another 70 kt jet
over northern Baja CA at the base of the stagnant upper low. Snow
levels will be around 7,000 to 7,500 feet due to the WAA in the
upper levels. Meanwhile, the backdoor front across northeast NM will
be reinforced within the next few hours this evening surging south
and west towards the central mountain chain. Moisture will increase
behind the front with dewpoints rising into the upper 20s to mid 30s
resulting in rain and snow to develop behind the backdoor front. The
coverage of rain and snow will be maximized along the east slopes of
the central mountain chain due to upslope surface flow and
isentropic upglide at the 300 K surface. Snow levels will be around
5,500 feet across far northeast NM increasing to around 6,500 feet
across the central mountain chain. Heavier snow will be possible
across the east slopes and adjacent highlands of the Sandia and
Manzano Mountains and Sangre De Cristo Mountains. In the end, Winter
Storm Warnings go into effect across the rest of the northern and
west central mountains and the northeast highlands, including Las
Vegas, beginning this evening with Winter Weather Advisories across
the central highlands and southwest mountains beginning at midnight.

The other impact this upper low will provide in the short term is
the high winds. The backdoor front will surge through the gaps of
the central mountain chain this evening around 7 to 8 PM across the
Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros along with Carrizozo. Santa Fe could
get Wind Advisory speeds with the initial surge of the gap wind
before midnight. However, the main wind show with damaging winds
possible will be across the eastern ABQ metro at the mouth of
Tijeras Canyon where sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts of
up to 75 mph could be possible. Southeast winds will also be
screaming through the Milan Canyon at Grants with wind gusts of up
to 65 mph. The High Wind Warning still goes into effect at 8 PM. The
east wind could prevent precipitation to develop across the ABQ
Metro but it could be overcome by the upper level divergence ahead
of the upper low and the isentropic upglide. The backdoor front will
make it past the NM/AZ border come sunrise Friday.

Friday will be an overall miserable day across northern and central
NM as the upper low continues spinning at the AZ/CA border. In terms
of precipitation, the two focus areas will be across the western
mountains along the Continental Divide and along the east slopes of
the central mountain chain due to upslope surface flow. Snow will
pile up across the northern mountains and Mount Taylor north of
Grants with up to 2 feet possible across the peaks. Went on the low
end of NBM temperature guidance areawide due to the persistent thick
low clouds and precipitation. In terms of the winds, east winds will
be screaming through the canyon gaps across the ABQ metro along with
Milan Canyon at Grants. Strong southeast winds will surge through
the canyons across the northwest highlands including Cuba and the
northwest plateau including Farmington with wind gusts of up to 55
mph. Therefore these two zones are under a wind advisory during the
day Friday. The east wind across northwest and central NM finally
tapers off gradually after sunset Friday. Another band of rain and
mountain snow looks to develop during the evening and overnight
hours across western NM as the upper low continues spinning in
western AZ.

71

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

GOES Water Vapor imagery shows an upper level low deepening over
AZ this afternoon as previously forecasted. HREF and other model
ensembles are in solid agreement with the low closing off almost
cutting off completely as the Rex Blocking pattern ensues.

Upper level jet increases over the region on Saturday with 90 to
110 knots at 300 mb as the now closed off upper low wobbles over
AZ supporting the SW winds aloft. The jet does weaken Sunday but
the closed low edges closer to NM during this time.

Sunday into Monday the closed low begins to retrograde a bit back
to the west as a strong northern jet stream trough develops over
the Great Lakes and swings east through the Mid-Atlantic. Most
ensemble models had been allowing the closed low to be caught up
by this trough but as can happen the closed low is left over the
region. This is the main forecast challenge is exactly when this
trough will move east.

Tuesday through Thursday next week model consistency ends with
each of the ensemble guidance having members consistent with
another ensemble model member set. Bottom line here is that some
time in the middle of the week the upper low crosses New Mexico
into the plains. This is due to an approaching jet streak in the
southern stream of the jet which finally pushes it out. Seems like
the earliest the low will move across is Wednesday with other
model guidance suggesting as late as Thursday.

So this means for the forecast that at least some precipitation
chances will continue through at least Tuesday/Wednesday next
week. We will need to closely evaluate winter storm warnings being
extended with each round of precipitation that is expected. We
are not trying to confuse the issue but hopefully keeping the
message simple that there could be prolonged winter storm impacts
such as difficult/hazardous travel on roads, power outages,
blowing snow with gusty winds. Confidence in the Tuesday through
Thursday next week forecast is quite low and this is where the
forecast will change the most. It looks like the late Sunday into
Monday more winter storm warnings will be needed. This lines up
when the closed low wobbles east a bit. It will also be able to
tap Gulf moisture due to a warm conveyor belt developing along the
Rio Grande in TX up into SE NM. This develops in response to
another re-enforcing cold front coming through the plains due to
the northern stream trough passage. There will be a bit of a
squeeze play with orographic lift and isentropic lift. Precip
chances could go higher Sunday and Monday as a result.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1109 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A mix of VFR to MVFR conditions prevail at area TAF sites with
deterioration and an expansion of mountain obscurations forecast
overnight through Friday morning. Precipitation will continue
overnight, with snow levels fluctuating between 6,500-7000ft. KSAF
and KLVS may be impacted by snow with short-lived IFR conditions
possible. Precipitation will focus across eastern NM for much of
Friday and fall mostly as rain with IFR conditions likely at KLVS
and KTCC. A more significant band of precipitation, which may
include some thunder, will impact western NM late Friday afternoon
through the evening, with potential for LIFR conditions in snow
at KGUP. Otherwise, strong to dangerous east canyon winds will
persist through Friday at KABQ, with gusts occasionally reaching
up to between 50-55kts. An Airport Weather warning for these east
canyon winds is in effect for KABQ and will continue through at
least 00Z Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. The combination of a backdoor cold front and
slowly approaching upper level low will bring higher humidity,
cooler temperatures, strong east winds across northwest NM and ABQ
metro Friday, and good chances for wetting precipitation to the area
Friday through mid next week. Significant snow accumulations are
likely in the mountains. Ventilation will become mainly poor this
weekend through early next week Daytime temperatures will remain
below normal through the period.

71

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  56  36  52 /  90  50  80  50
Dulce...........................  30  53  29  48 /  70  70  60  80
Cuba............................  31  47  29  44 /  80  30  70  50
Gallup..........................  31  49  26  47 /  90  60  90  30
El Morro........................  31  42  25  42 /  80  60  90  40
Grants..........................  30  44  26  46 /  80  50  80  30
Quemado.........................  33  48  26  44 /  50  90  80  30
Magdalena.......................  35  45  32  47 /  70  70  90  40
Datil...........................  32  43  28  42 /  60  80  90  20
Reserve.........................  30  53  28  51 /  50  90  80  20
Glenwood........................  41  58  37  55 /  50  90  80  20
Chama...........................  26  45  25  44 /  80  80  60  80
Los Alamos......................  34  44  31  44 /  80  50  60  60
Pecos...........................  29  42  29  44 /  90  80  70  70
Cerro/Questa....................  31  41  31  42 /  90  70  40  60
Red River.......................  21  37  21  38 /  90  80  50  70
Angel Fire......................  18  34  20  38 /  90  80  60  70
Taos............................  26  46  26  47 /  80  60  40  50
Mora............................  26  36  25  42 /  90  80  60  60
Espanola........................  34  53  31  51 /  80  60  50  50
Santa Fe........................  35  47  32  46 /  70  60  70  70
Santa Fe Airport................  35  50  32  49 /  70  60  70  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  40  48  36  51 /  70  80  80  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  39  50  36  53 /  50  60  70  50
Albuquerque Valley..............  39  52  36  55 /  30  40  80  50
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  39  51  35  53 /  40  50  70  50
Belen...........................  38  53  35  56 /  40  40  80  50
Bernalillo......................  40  52  36  54 /  70  70  70  50
Bosque Farms....................  38  52  35  56 /  40  40  80  60
Corrales........................  39  53  35  54 /  50  60  70  50
Los Lunas.......................  38  52  35  56 /  40  30  80  50
Placitas........................  38  46  34  50 /  80  80  70  60
Rio Rancho......................  39  52  35  53 /  50  50  70  50
Socorro.........................  41  56  37  58 /  50  70  80  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  33  39  31  45 /  80  90  80  70
Tijeras.........................  34  42  32  48 /  80  90  80  70
Edgewood........................  33  41  30  47 /  70  70  70  60
Moriarty/Estancia...............  30  42  28  49 /  70  70  70  60
Clines Corners..................  27  35  26  42 /  80  80  80  60
Mountainair.....................  32  40  30  49 /  80  70  80  50
Gran Quivira....................  31  41  30  50 /  80  70  80  60
Carrizozo.......................  39  49  35  55 /  70  60  70  50
Ruidoso.........................  31  39  31  48 /  70  70  70  50
Capulin.........................  26  35  25  40 /  80  70  30  40
Raton...........................  27  38  26  42 /  90  90  30  50
Springer........................  29  38  27  44 /  80  80  30  40
Las Vegas.......................  28  34  26  40 /  90  90  60  50
Clayton.........................  32  41  29  47 /  30  50  20  40
Roy.............................  31  39  29  44 /  60  80  40  50
Conchas.........................  36  44  34  50 /  40  70  50  50
Santa Rosa......................  34  38  32  48 /  50  80  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  34  43  32  49 /  20  50  40  40
Clovis..........................  37  46  35  51 /  10  60  50  50
Portales........................  36  49  35  53 /  10  60  50  50
Fort Sumner.....................  36  44  34  51 /  30  70  60  50
Roswell.........................  44  49  41  55 /  40  90  70  40
Picacho.........................  36  43  35  52 /  50  70  60  30
Elk.............................  34  43  33  53 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for NMZ201-204.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ202-206-210-
211-213>215-221-227>229.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ207-219.

Wind Advisory until midnight MDT Friday night for NMZ220-224-225.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ208-212-
216-223.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.