Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47

000
FXUS65 KABQ 121128 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
528 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Dry, warm, and breezy weather continues the next couple of
afternoons, creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions in
eastern NM. A winter storm system will begin to impact the area
Wednesday afternoon, spreading rain and snow showers across western
and northern NM. A backdoor cold front will surge through the gaps
of the central mountain chain Thursday night, creating very strong
gap winds in eastern Albuquerque and increasing the coverage of rain
and snow showers across the entire area. The unsettled weather is
expected to continue through at least Saturday and may persist into
the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A weak shortwave is crossing the Northern Mountains early this
morning and a few breezes have been noted in area observations. This
shortwave trough will continue to slide east through the morning
hours and should be over the Great Plains by the lunch hour. As such
the associated surface low will be well into KS and the surface
pressure gradient across NM will be less than noteworthy. Afternoon
mixing should also not yield much of an increase in winds either.
So, while a few breezes will persist throughout the day around KCQC
in particular, overall wind speeds are not expected to be as strong
as originally thought. Otherwise, it should be a rather lovely day
with high temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal.

This evening through Wednesday, two leading shortwaves ahead of a
much more complicated system (see long term) will cross northern NM.
Moisture will be increasing, particularly across northwest NM, and a
mix of rain and snow is expected to develop this evening. Showers
will expand southeastward across the northern and western mountains
through Wednesday as a cold front pushes through the area. A few
breezes may occur along the cold front overnight across northwest
and north central NM, but by Wednesday afternoon, stronger winds can
be expected areawide. A 992-995mb surface low is expected near the
OK/NM/CO border increasing the surface pressure gradient, while
above average mixing is expected. H7 winds between 25 and 40kt are
now progged which is quite a bit higher than what yesterday`s models
were suggesting. A few areas of blowing dust is possible as surface
winds may gust between 40 and 50 mph across eastern NM.  Cooler
temperatures can be expected areawide Wednesday afternoon, though
less-so across eastern NM where downsloping will help offset the
cold air advection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A complex winter storm system with multiple phases will impact the
area during the long-term forecast period. Confidence in winter
weather impacts is moderate through Friday, but becomes low over the
weekend given the variety of potential storm tracks.

The first phase of the storm will mainly impact northern NM as a
shortwave trough traverses the Colorado Rockies and moves into the
eastern plains. The heaviest snowfall is likely in the Tusas and
northern Sangre de Cristo mountains, although snow may reach as far
south as the southwest mountains Wednesday night.

The second and most impactful phase of the storm occurs Thursday
morning through Friday night as a closed Low over The Great Basin
plunges into the desert southwest. A broad area of divergence on the
east side of the Low will focus precipitation along the Continental
Divide and in the southwest mountains. However, warm-air advection
will increase 700mb temps to near, if not slightly above freezing,
in this area, so accumulations will generally be confined to the
high terrain. That all changes Thursday night as a backdoor cold
front surges through the gaps of the central mountain chain,
ushering in a colder and more moist airmass. PWATs rise to 100-200%
of normal across the entire state and snow levels drop down to
around 6,000 feet (except 4,500 feet in eastern NM). This will favor
a rain/snow mix along the Rio Grande Valley with accumulating
snowfall expected above 8,000 feet. Models continue to indicate the
potential for a high-end east wind event to impact the east
Albuquerque metro area late Thursday into Friday when winds may gust
as high as 65 mph. Gusty east winds combined with moderate to
locally heavy snowfall rates could create blizzard-like conditions
at times in the Sandia/Manzano mountains and along the Continental
Divide. Cold air advection behind the backdoor front will battle
warm air advection out ahead of the closed Low. Convergence along
the boundary between the two will be the focus of precipitation on
Friday.

Uncertainty remains very high during the third phase of the storm
system. Models continue to struggle with the Low track Friday and
Saturday as it begins to fill. The recent trend has moved the Low
slightly further west, which would favor more precipitation in
western NM and less in the eastern half of the state. Confidence in
storm track decreases even further Sunday into Monday. The Low could
continue spinning over western AZ or it may move eastward and spread
rain/snow showers across the southern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Batches of high
clouds will cross the area today. A few westerly breezes are
expected this afternoon, mainly across east central NM. Starting
late tonight into Wednesday morning, the initial shortwave trough
will begin to move over the Four Corners area. VFR cigs will
lower, and a few showers will become possible around KFMN and
KGUP. An associated weak cold front will also push eastward
overnight across northwest and north central NM and a few gusts
may be associated with this feature.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 328 AM MDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY...

The Fire Weather Watch for today has been cancelled as winds are not
expected to be as strong as originally thought. Elevated fire
weather conditions remain along the I-40 corridor across eastern NM
this afternoon as RH values will be below 15 percent. Another change
to the forecast is that winds will increase considerably on
Wednesday afternoon with gusts between 40 and 50 mph possible across
eastern NM. A Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for Wed aftn and
early eve for the East Central Plains where these strong winds will
combine with RH values near 15 percent.

A complex and large storm system will then impact the state late
Wednesday through at least the weekend. This system will bring a
much needed increase in moisture and the potential for significant
high terrain snowfall as well as a mix of rain and snow at lower
elevations. A few rumbles of thunder is also possible. A very strong
backdoor cold front is also expected Thursday and Thursday night.
Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected across eastern NM,
but as the front pushes through the gaps of the Central Mountain
Chain, potentially damaging east or southeast winds are expected
Thursday night into Friday morning across the Rio Grande Valley. The
front will continue pushing west and northwest through Friday
morning, likely reaching the AZ border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  63  36  53  31 /   5  50  40  20
Dulce...........................  57  30  48  24 /   5  70  70  40
Cuba............................  59  31  49  27 /   0  30  50  40
Gallup..........................  62  33  52  25 /   0  20  40  50
El Morro........................  58  32  48  24 /   0  10  40  50
Grants..........................  63  32  52  23 /   0   5  20  40
Quemado.........................  62  32  54  26 /   0   0  30  40
Magdalena.......................  64  37  57  32 /   0   0  10  30
Datil...........................  60  33  54  27 /   0   0  10  30
Reserve.........................  65  28  59  27 /   0   0  20  30
Glenwood........................  67  39  62  38 /   0   0  10  20
Chama...........................  52  27  43  20 /   0  70  80  50
Los Alamos......................  58  37  49  32 /   0  20  30  40
Pecos...........................  59  32  52  29 /   0  10  20  40
Cerro/Questa....................  52  35  45  33 /   0  30  30  50
Red River.......................  50  26  43  21 /   0  30  40  60
Angel Fire......................  48  25  41  16 /   0  40  30  50
Taos............................  58  29  51  24 /   0  30  30  40
Mora............................  60  32  52  25 /   0  10  20  30
Espanola........................  65  35  56  32 /   0  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  59  34  52  32 /   0  20  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  63  34  56  31 /   0  20  20  40
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  42  58  37 /   0   5  20  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  41  60  36 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  68  39  62  35 /   0   5  10  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  67  40  61  36 /   0   5  10  30
Belen...........................  71  37  65  32 /   0   5  10  30
Bernalillo......................  67  41  59  36 /   0   5  20  30
Bosque Farms....................  69  38  63  32 /   0   5  10  30
Corrales........................  67  40  61  36 /   0   5  10  30
Los Lunas.......................  70  37  64  34 /   0   5  10  30
Placitas........................  63  41  55  35 /   0   5  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  67  40  59  35 /   0   5  20  30
Socorro.........................  72  40  67  37 /   0   0   5  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  59  38  52  32 /   0   5  20  30
Tijeras.........................  61  38  54  32 /   0   5  20  30
Edgewood........................  60  37  54  29 /   0   0  10  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  63  34  58  26 /   0   0   5  20
Clines Corners..................  61  33  53  26 /   0   0   5  20
Mountainair.....................  62  36  57  29 /   0   0  10  30
Gran Quivira....................  62  34  57  29 /   0   0  10  30
Carrizozo.......................  66  42  63  37 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  60  38  56  34 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  63  33  57  28 /   0   0  20  50
Raton...........................  66  32  60  28 /   0   0  20  50
Springer........................  67  34  61  30 /   0   0   5  40
Las Vegas.......................  64  34  55  28 /   0   0   0  30
Clayton.........................  70  40  66  34 /   0   0  10  30
Roy.............................  66  37  62  33 /   0   0   5  30
Conchas.........................  74  42  68  37 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  70  41  64  34 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  74  40  70  34 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  75  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  76  41  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  74  39  70  36 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  79  43  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  72  44  68  37 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  69  44  65  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for NMZ126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...34


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.