Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 120558 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Dry, windy, and warm conditions will continue over eastern NM
through Wednesday with dangerous fire weather conditions. Clouds
will thicken and lower across northwest NM Wednesday with rain and
snow showers increasing over the northern and western high terrain.
Big changes are expected to begin Thursday as a potent cold front
slides into eastern NM while more rain and snow develops across
northern, central, and western NM. The cold front will surge west
into the Albuquerque metro area with strong canyon winds possible
Thursday night and Friday morning. Wind gusts may exceed 55 mph
below canyons. Widespread rain and snow is then possible through
Friday and Saturday with moderate to heavy accumulations in the
higher terrain. Unsettled weather may continue Sunday and Monday
depending on how fast the storm system exits the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Overall today has been quite nice with with some thick high clouds
moving across New Mexico. These high clouds are ahead of a weak
trough over the Great Basin extending down towards the Desert SW.
This trough should move across New Mexico tonight and Tuesday. In
its wake 700mb to 500mb is expected to increase going into
Wednesday. Surface winds should respond accordingly with the
tightening pressure gradient due to surface cyclogenesis over SE CO
late Tuesday. HREF and other synoptic models look on track with this
scenario so made some minor adjustments to the forecast as a result.

The main issues will be narrow swaths of higher winds at the surface
resulting in areas of critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday in
E NM. Airmass will be quite dry already and temps should increase
above normal with downsloping winds. Decided to keep to the higher
side of the Max T ensemble envelope which will also support
critical fire weather concerns. We did not change anything with the
fire weather headlines keeping the warning for today and watch for
tomorrow. Just how strong the winds get will be the issue for
elevated versus critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

An extended period of moderate to possibly high impact weather is
expected to unfold beginning around Wednesday. Winds aloft will
strengthen over NM ahead of a potent storm system taking shape
over the Great Basin. Strong ridge top winds Tuesday night will
spread to much of eastern NM Wednesday afternoon with a ~994mb
surface low over the TX panhandle. Strong downslope flow into
eastern NM with low humidity and warm temps will lead to critical
fire weather and areas of blowing dust across the east-central
and southeast plains Wednesday. The rest of northern and western
NM will see the chance for rain and snow showers increase as the
aforementioned upper low spreads deeper moisture and instability
into the area. Rain and snow showers will continue to increase in
coverage Wednesday night farther to the east toward the central mt
chain as the upper low deepens to near 545dm over far northwest
AZ. Meanwhile, an upper low ejecting east from the Front Range of
CO during this time will help force a backdoor cold front south
into far northeast NM by sunrise Thursday.

Thursday and Thursday night will transition toward more impactful
winter weather for parts of the area as a complex winter storm takes
shape over AZ and NM. The backdoor front will continue progressing
to the southwest Thursday while upper level diffluence and large-
scale ascent improves over NM. Persistent rain and snow will likely
develop over the Sangre de Cristo Mts where enhanced upslope flow
builds southwest down the Front Range from CO. Confidence is
highest in that area for the initial set of Winter Storm Watches
but those will not be issued quite yet given we are still talking
about 7th period (late Thursday night/Friday morning). The front
is likely to surge into the RGV by Thursday evening with strong
canyon winds developing in the ABQ metro area. The latest MOS and
NBM wind gust envelope suggests gusts of 50 to 70 mph possible
on the east side of the ABQ metro Friday morning. This front will
continue progressing westward Friday morning with surface
convergence setting up along the Cont Dvd. Widespread rain and
snow is expected to develop over much of northern and western NM
before sunrise Friday. Snow levels are likely to center between
6,000 and 7,000 ft with impacts to travel possible along the Cont
Dvd of I-40 and U.S. 550, as well as I-25 in northeast NM. The
focus for winter weather impacts may remain west of the central mt
chain thru Friday night depending on the track of the upper low
to our west. Forecast confidence drops quickly as there is a wide
range of model solutions. A farther east track would spread snow
more into central NM through Friday night while a farther west
track would keep snow focused across the west. Either way, canyon
winds will continue into the ABQ metro Friday and Friday night.

Forecast confidence continues to deteriorate Saturday and Sunday
given the highly complex atmospheric pattern and associated large
degree of spread in model solutions. There is potential for the
upper low to retrograde far enough west into southern CA to force
the better lift and moisture out of NM for the weekend. There is
also a large northern stream trough that may attempt to scoop up
the southwest low by Sunday and force it eastward across NM into
west TX by Monday. There will be a lot of changes during this
period so folks with travel plans should pay close attention to
the forecast trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Batches of high
clouds will cross the area through Tuesday. A few westerly breezes
are expected Tuesday afternoon, mainly across east central NM.
Starting late Wednesday, the initial shortwave trough will begin
to move over the Four Corners area. VFR cigs will lower, and a few
showers will become possible around KFMN. An associated cold front
will also push eastward overnight across northwest and north
central NM and a few gusts may be associated with this feature.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to return on Tuesday
across the Central Highlands and East Central Plains. This will all
hinge on wind speeds in these areas as humidity levels will be quite
low and a couple of hours below 10 percent. ERCs and burn index
values support dry fuels in the area mainly fine fuels. RFTI show
areas of near critical in the areas of the fire weather watch.

Critical fire weather conditions for Wednesday have become more
borderline due to forecasted winds being lower and higher winds not
as widespread. This also results in the higher winds and low RH
values not in phase or coupled together as much. RFTI categories
remain near critical to critical but much smaller areas of critical
hinting at the localized nature of the higher winds. Lowest RH
values look to be south of I-40 closer to Roswell where the highest
winds may be from the Highlands to along/north of I-40. There is
still time to identify the areas with highest potential for critical
conditions but this may not be quite as widespread of an event as
previously forecast.

The approaching storm system that develops over AZ by Thursday will
support more moisture along with precipitation chances so Wednesday
should be the last day of any critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  32  63  38  53 /   0   5  20  40
Dulce...........................  28  57  30  48 /   5   0  30  70
Cuba............................  28  58  31  50 /   0   0  10  40
Gallup..........................  25  61  30  52 /   0   0  10  40
El Morro........................  27  57  30  50 /   0   0   0  30
Grants..........................  24  62  30  52 /   0   0   0  20
Quemado.........................  28  61  30  54 /   0   0   0  30
Magdalena.......................  35  64  35  58 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  29  60  32  54 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  24  65  30  60 /   0   0   0  20
Glenwood........................  36  67  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  24  52  26  43 /   5   0  30  70
Los Alamos......................  36  58  35  52 /   0   0   5  30
Pecos...........................  31  59  33  53 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  32  52  35  45 /   0   0   5  30
Red River.......................  26  50  25  42 /   0   0   5  40
Angel Fire......................  22  47  22  41 /   0   0   0  30
Taos............................  25  58  29  51 /   0   0   5  20
Mora............................  32  60  32  52 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  31  65  34  59 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  34  59  34  53 /   0   0   0  30
Santa Fe Airport................  31  63  33  56 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  40  65  40  60 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  38  67  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  36  69  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  36  69  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  33  70  36  65 /   0   0   0   5
Bernalillo......................  37  68  39  61 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  33  69  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  35  68  39  62 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  33  69  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  39  63  39  57 /   0   0   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  37  67  39  61 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  38  72  39  68 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  36  58  37  53 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  36  60  36  57 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  34  60  35  58 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  28  63  33  59 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  31  60  33  55 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  34  62  35  58 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  32  62  34  59 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  37  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  32  63  33  57 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  30  66  32  59 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  31  67  32  60 /   0   0   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  33  64  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  40  71  40  67 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  34  67  36  63 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  38  75  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  39  71  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  37  75  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  39  76  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  37  77  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  37  75  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  40  80  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  40  73  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  40  69  43  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for NMZ125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...34


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