Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 180923
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

An upper level low pressure system remains nearly stationary over
Arizona. This feature continues to keep rising air and moisture
over much of southwestern and portions of central New Mexico where
showers and thunderstorms will redevelop through this afternoon.
High elevations above 8,000 feet could see some additional snow,
but accumulations in most areas should remain light with just a
couple more inches. Temperatures will warm up several degrees
today, but will still be below normal for mid March by 5 to 15
degrees. Showers and thunderstorms will inch a bit more into
western and central New Mexico on Tuesday with temperatures rising
a few degrees. The low pressure system will finally move eastward
Tuesday night into Wednesday when scattered showers and
thunderstorms will spread over more of New Mexico with rainfall
amounts generally staying less than a quarter of an inch. Dry
conditions will then finish up the work week with a gradual
warming trend back to more seasonable temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

There will be a downtick in the coverage and intensity of rain
showers, thunderstorms, and snow showers today as the upper level
low pressure system over AZ recenters near the AZ/CA border.  Moist
southeasterly flow will continue to feed into the system at the low
levels over the southwest third of the forecast area, where
scattered to isolated rain and snow showers will continue through
the day.  After bottoming out near 5500 feet there this morning, the
snow level will climb above 7500 feet in the afternoon. Elsewhere,
fair weather will develop today with warming temperatures, although
it will still be cool with high temperatures a few to around 15
degrees below 1991-2020 averages.  Snow amounts over southwest
mountains should only reach an inch or two on the higher peaks.

Tuesday will feature an increase in the coverage of rain showers,
thunderstorms, and mountain snow showers along and west of the
central mountain chain as the upper low begins to migrate
northeastward toward NM. The upper low is forecast to fill with a
central pressure near 564 DAM at 500 mb by Tuesday afternoon, which
is quite a bit weaker than last week when the storm system produced
two rounds of heavy snow across the forecast area. Any precipitation
that accumulates over the forecast area on Tuesday will be light
with only an inch or so of snow on the highest peaks. High
temperatures should trend a few to around 8 degrees above Monday`s
readings in most locations, with values climbing up to 4 degrees
above 30-year averages over the northeast corner of the forecast
area, while remaining a few to 13 degrees below the averages
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The seemingly catatonic cut-off low will finally come to life and
be set into eastward motion more Tuesday night into Wednesday.
This will spread weak large scale ascent into more of the forecast
area with scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying.
Moisture will be on the lower side with PWATs staying around 0.3
to 0.4 inch for the most part and most cells will likely move
quick enough to produce wetting footprints short of that. As
temperatures rise, so will snow levels (probably reaching or
exceeding 9,000 feet by the afternoon), so daytime snow levels
will not be of concern, but a couple to a few inches are possible
in isolated western high terrain areas early Wednesday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will wane in eastern NM Wednesday
evening.

A mostly dry spell will then begin Thursday through Friday with
the upper flow gradually backing from a northwesterly component to
a more zonal one. This will initiate rising heights and warmer
temperatures with more insolation. The relatively light speeds
aloft and absence of any strong gradient inducing troughs/cyclones
will keep breezes on the light to moderate side. Another surface
front is progged to slide down the plains with some low level
surface/moisture convergence being depicted by the GFS late Friday
into Friday night, and this looks to be the only concern for any
precipitation, mainly in far northeastern zones.

The next Pacific Northwest low comes into the picture Saturday,
running toward the OR coast late in the day while zonal flow
strengthens over the American Southwest and NM. A lee-side surface
trough will also deepen, and consequently breezy conditions will
turn more widespread Saturday afternoon. It also probably warrants
noting that a potential dryline could be setting up in the TX/OK
panhandles as veering flow and warm air advection resume there.

Into Sunday, the remnants of the OR low will swing toward southern
CA as an open trough, spreading an even tighter gradient aloft
over NM along with showers over western and some northern zones as
the flow becomes more perturbed. Conditions would be quite
unsettled with widespread wind advisories possible and another
round of high elevation snow for western and eventually central
zones by Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The upper low over eastern AZ will begin to retrograde
southwestward late tonight reaching the AZ/CA border by Monday
morning, where it is forecast to remain centered through Monday
night. West central and southwest parts of the forecast area will
remain under favorable forcing for scattered rain and snow
showers for the remainder of tonight and Monday. The snow level
will lift above 7500 feet Monday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
are also expected over west central and southwest areas Monday.
There is a risk that Gallup and other locations that received
fresh snow accumulation on Sunday will develop IFR conditions in
low clouds and dense fog late tonight through mid morning on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A general warming trend will commence today through the end of the
week with high temperatures reaching near and above 1991-2020
averages areawide starting Thursday, and climaxing Saturday a few to
around 8 degrees above the averages. The upper low over AZ has
weakened significantly, so any additional precipitation it produces
as it crosses the fire weather forecast area during the first half
of the work week will be light. The latter half of the week will be
dry as a low amplitude ridge of high pressure crosses from the west.
Winds will be gusty each afternoon during the latter half of the
week, especially over the weekend when southwest winds will become
breezy Saturday and windy Sunday as a broad longwave trough carves
its way through the western US. Wind gusts from 40-50 mph look
common across the forecast area on Sunday, when humidities could
potentially be low enough for widespread fire weather concerns east
of the central mountain chain. Along and west of the central
mountain chain rain and snow showers are forecast Sunday as
temperatures trend cooler.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  58  33  58  34 /   0   0  20  20
Dulce...........................  55  24  57  26 /   0   0  20  20
Cuba............................  49  27  51  30 /   0   0  30  20
Gallup..........................  52  28  53  27 /  20  20  60  30
El Morro........................  44  29  48  26 /  20  20  60  30
Grants..........................  48  26  51  27 /  10  10  40  30
Quemado.........................  46  30  51  28 /  40  20  50  20
Magdalena.......................  47  33  51  32 /  40  30  30  20
Datil...........................  43  29  48  28 /  30  30  30  30
Reserve.........................  51  29  56  24 /  50  30  40  10
Glenwood........................  55  37  59  33 /  60  50  40  10
Chama...........................  50  19  52  24 /   5   5  20  30
Los Alamos......................  48  31  52  34 /   0   0  20  20
Pecos...........................  48  27  54  30 /   5   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  47  25  50  31 /   0   5  10  20
Red River.......................  45  18  48  21 /  10  10  10  20
Angel Fire......................  42  15  46  17 /  10   5  20  20
Taos............................  52  22  56  27 /   0   0  10  10
Mora............................  47  22  53  26 /   5   0  10  20
Espanola........................  57  29  61  33 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe........................  51  30  54  34 /   0   0  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  53  30  57  33 /   0   0  10  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  38  58  38 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  36  59  38 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  59  36  61  33 /   5   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  57  35  59  37 /   5   5  20  20
Belen...........................  58  34  60  34 /  10  10  20  20
Bernalillo......................  58  34  60  37 /   5   5  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  58  34  60  32 /  10   5  20  20
Corrales........................  58  34  60  37 /   5   5  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  58  33  60  33 /  10  10  20  20
Placitas........................  53  35  56  36 /   5   5  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  57  35  59  37 /   5   0  20  20
Socorro.........................  58  38  61  36 /  30  20  20  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  32  51  34 /   5   5  20  20
Tijeras.........................  51  32  54  34 /   5   5  20  20
Edgewood........................  51  30  55  30 /   0   0  10  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  26  57  27 /   0   0  10  20
Clines Corners..................  45  28  53  30 /   0   0  10  20
Mountainair.....................  50  31  54  31 /  10  10  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  50  29  55  31 /  20  10  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  54  35  59  37 /  20  20  20  10
Ruidoso.........................  45  30  53  31 /  20  20  20  10
Capulin.........................  50  27  57  28 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  52  24  59  28 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  52  23  60  28 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  47  26  55  29 /   0   0   5  10
Clayton.........................  58  35  65  36 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  54  31  61  32 /   0   0   0  10
Conchas.........................  60  33  68  36 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Rosa......................  56  33  62  35 /   0   0   5  10
Tucumcari.......................  59  33  67  37 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  60  34  64  39 /   0   0   5  10
Portales........................  62  33  66  37 /   0   0   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  60  34  65  36 /   0   0  10  10
Roswell.........................  62  41  66  41 /  10  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  54  36  62  37 /  10  10  20   5
Elk.............................  52  34  61  35 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44


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