Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272050
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHING UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN MUCAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT A
PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL
DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...DESPITE
THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR


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