Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251738 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE MORNING UPDATE BACK-PEDDLES ON THE SNOW-NO SNOW LINE...PLACING
ALL OF THE FARTHEST NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE "NO SNOW"
SIDE OF THE FENCE...WITH SNOW ACCUMS INCREASING TOWARD
KATY/KPIR...AND THE HIGHEST ACCUMS ACROSS JONES/LYMAN/BUFFALO
COUNTIES. CURRENT HEADLINE STILL LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NE COLORADO WILL MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY...AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COUPLED-JET FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PCPN ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT...OR ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE SURFACE
LOW. WHILE A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MIXED PCPN...MOST OBS HAVE REPORTED -SN. THUS WILL LEAVE OUT THE
MENTION OF MIXED PCPN IN THE ADVISORY AND GRIDS.

THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...OR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. THE 03Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING 4 PLUS INCHES NOW AFFECTS ONLY SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE CURRENT ADVISORY IS LOCATED. THE SHIFT
FURTHER SOUTH LOOKS REASONABLE BASED ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL PLACEMENT OR PPP. YESTERDAY THE PPP WAS LOCATED ALONG
HIGHWAY 12 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. THE LATEST
MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW THE HIGHEST PPP ALONG HIGHWAY 14...BEFORE
PUSHING SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY 0Z.

DRIER AIR QUICKLY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT DROPPING TO BELOW TWO TENTH OF
AN INCH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY FLURRIES...AT BEST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER
AROUND OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (NEW YEARS EVE)

NO REAL CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE WORK
WEEK...MAINLY WEST.

FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT THE "WARMEST" DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY IN THE
WEST. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP TO AROUND 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BACKED OFF SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT KEEPS THE
TREND OF KEEPING THE EAST MAINLY DRY AND BEST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE MODELS HAVE A STRONG SFC HIGH
(~1054 MB) SLIDING INTO EASTERN MT TUESDAY AND CONTINUES DOWN THE
FRONT RANGE WEDNESDAY SPREADING THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN FOR
AWHILE. HOWEVER...AFTER THE SFC HIGH PUSHES WELL SOUTH IT APPEARS
WARMER PACIFIC AIR WILL START TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...1-2SM VISBIES IN SNOW /OCCASIONALLY LOWER THAN THAT/ WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ON OCCASIONALLY BREEZY/GUSTY NORTH
WINDS. TOSSED IN SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTION...BUT MAJORITY OF
VISBIE REDUCTION HERE IS OWED TO FALLING SNOW. LOOK FOR MVFR/VFR
CIGS TO PERSIST AT KPIR THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL.

KATY...CURRENTLY SEEING THE FIRST BAND OF SNOW WEAKENING...SO
PROBABLY WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN 1-3SM VISBIES IN LIGHT
SNOW TO MORE LIKE P6SM VISBIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THIS CURRENT
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEPARTS. SHOULD STILL BE DEALING WITH MVFR/VFR
CIGS AT KATY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE
STRATUS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH REACHES THE TERMINAL. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE NEXT BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
NEAR KATY BY AROUND 03Z...AND THEN LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DROP
VISBIES BACK DOWN TO IFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KABR/KMBG...THESE TERMINALS MAY EXPERIENCE OCCASIONAL LIGHT
FLURRIES OF SNOW OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT THE PRIMARY
FLYING NUISANCE WILL BE MVFR /1000-2000FT AGL/ CIGS-PRODUCING
STRATUS WORKING DOWN FROM NODAK RIGHT NOW. THIS STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR
     BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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