Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231744 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Northwest winds have mixed out into the 25 to 45 mph range this
morning and are expected to continue through the afternoon. Wind
advisory looks fine. Otherwise, 50s to the lower 60s for highs are
on track. Updated forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

The cold front that brought a few light showers, and brief gusty
winds, has shifted east of the area. While there could still be an
isolated shower near the SD/MN border around 18Z, the rest of this
period will be rain free.

North to northwesterly flow will be the rule aloft as the 500mb low
spins across the Great Lakes through the first half of the work week.

The main story will be the windy conditions and elevated fire
concerns today. Behind the exiting cold front, and as mixing
increases, windy conditions will develop this morning, and continue
through the afternoon hours, before diminishing around sunset. Peak
gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. A Wind Advisory has been posted
for the entire forecast area. Grassland fire danger index will rise
into the high to very high categories over the eastern two-thirds of
the forecast area today as RH values fall to 25 to 40 percent. The
lowest humidity is expected west of the Missouri River. We will be
stuck between exiting/deepening low pressure setting up over the
Great Lakes, and strong high pressure over the Pacific Northwest.

Will need to monitor wind in Stanley/Jones/Hughes Counties, as they
will likely see the best chance of nearing High Wind Warning levels
between 17 and 21Z.

While winds should diminish this evening, they will still remain
breezy, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph tonight. The strongest winds are
expected over and east of the Sisseton Hills. Will need to
reevaluate the need for another Wind Advisory for this area after
06Z and continuing into Tuesday. Winds will finally diminish to less
than 15kts across the whole cwa Tuesday night, where they should
linger through much of Wednesday as the Great Lakes low exits into
eastern Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

General trend in the extended for cooler temperatures remains.
However, models are backing off a bit on the coldest readings. The
extended will be a tale of a deep upper trough. The trough will plow
into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A moderately strong
low at the sfc followed by an arctic high will squeeze a decent
pressure gradient over the Dakotas. As pressure falls quickly Wed
night, the winds will increase across the region. H85 temps will
fall to around -10C over northeast SD and west central MN by
Thursday night. Precip now looks like it will remain mostly north
and east. So, while areas east of I-29 may still see some snow,
little is expected to accumulate. Sfc high pressure will drop down
out of Canada over the weekend as the upper flow becomes north to
northwest. Highs will only be in the 40s through much of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Some VFR sct-bkn mixing layer cu clouds will remain into the early
evening along with mid level clouds coming in from the northwest
through the night. Otherwise, strong northwest winds of 25 to 30
knots with gusts to 35 to 40 knots will continue into the early
evening hours before diminishing into the 15 to 25 knot range.


SD...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for

MN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ039-046.



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