Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291954
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERIT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


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