Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 031724
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE W-SW...BUT
STILL TO LITTLE OF A CHANCE OF EVEN INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING FIRE DANGER. LOOKS LIKE MIXING WILL RISE TO NEAR 700MB
THIS AFTERNOON...TAPPING INTO SOME INCREASED WINDS OF 25 TO NEAR
35KTS. SO AFTER LIGHT MAINLY W WINDS...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
FROM ABR DOWN TO ATY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NNW AS THE SFC HIGH
OVERHEAD GETS REPLACED BY THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SET UP
ACROSS S MANITOBA...STRETCHING FROM THE LOW OVER N ONTARIO. THIS
INCREASE IN WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES...WHICH WILL BOTTOM OUT 25-30 PERCENT OVER THE N TIER
COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THIS
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS AND ONLY
BORDERLINE RH VALUES...WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SINKING SE THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE CWA WILL
BE STUCK BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH AND NEARING LOW FROM S CENTRAL
CANADA. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF N WINDS...S-SW WINDS WILL RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 15C. SFC TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
NEAR 80F.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS...AND WILL REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GETTING DAMPENED BY A SHORTWAVE SKIRTING THE REGION. THE RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY BEFORE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ENERGY REMAINS IN THE GENERAL
VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE
CWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THERE LOOKS TO BE A
BRIEF MOSTLY DRY PERIOD ON SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY WARM DAY AS H925 TEMPS IN EXCESS OF +20
DEVELOP. GENERALLY LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. COOLER
AIR THEN MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WITH AN EARLY SHIFT IN WINDS FROM AROUND 300 TO 360
DEGREES..ALONG WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTINESS. WINDS WILL CALM
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY


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