Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220525 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1125 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 901 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Allowed the warning in Jones county to expire this evening. Light
snow continues to wrap into the Lyman bootheel. Areas south of
Reliance could see an additional inch or two before the system
exits. No major changes were made to the forecast this evening.
Stratus and fog are just beginning to creep down out of ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The deepening sfc low is along the KS/OK border. This and the 500mb
low just to the west, will shift northeast through Monday. The sfc
low will shift along the WI/IL border by 00z Tuesday.

Taking a look at the current radar imagery, we still have a distinct
line of light to moderate snow from Buffalo County up through and
south of ATY. While there looks to be a break in the snow for Lyman
County, it will be rotating back in shortly from south central SD.
Snow has fallen at Mac`s Corner and Gann Valley, but accumulations
look limited farther north. Even then, traffic, possible pre-
treatment, and warm sfc temps in the low 30s have resulted in mainly
wet roadways this afternoon, although there are still some slippery
spots being reported from the SD DOT webpage.

Given limited snow and the lack of any strong winds to reduce
visibility, have gone ahead and cancelled Stanley and Hughes County
headlines. Will keep Buffalo going. Also trimmed back the time on
the Winter Storm Warning for Jones County, as much of the snow
should be to the east around or shortly after 03Z, with only limited
snow after. Southeastern Lyman County should still get light to
moderate snow through at least 09Z, so am hesitant to cut it back
any sooner than the original 12Z time. Otherwise, on our eastern
edge, will go ahead and drop the Advisory for Deuel County, as snow
amounts up to 2 inches don`t really necessitate a headline. With the
less than fluffy snow, and time for compaction before winds
increase, blowing snow may be less of a concern.

As we move into Monday, another concern will be fog
developing/drifting south from ND. Given lower confidence, kept most
locations in the patchy category for now. Highs Friday will top out
in the upper 20s to low 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

When the period opens, the forecast area is settling into a dry
and increasingly warm forecast period through Friday. Above normal
temperatures appear to be in order for this region through Friday,
before the next Canada-sourced cold front blasts through the region.
Friday night marks a transition back to near normal cold for late
January. With the onset of colder air, strong northwest winds are
also probable. The cold air is forecast to stick around through the
weekend. Longer range forecast solutions continue to highlight
Friday afternoon/evening through Saturday as forecast periods with
precipitation (mainly snow) chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Fog and stratus has started to advect in from ND and MN tonight.
Expect all sites to be IFR by 9z. KMBG/KPIR/KABR will improve to
VFR Monday afternoon. KATY will not improve until Monday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for SDZ048.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for SDZ051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Wise


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