Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST CHANGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING
EAST PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT HAD TO KEEP SKY COVER IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST. ALSO...BASED OFF OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SEEN PRETTY DISTINCTLY ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS THIS EVENING TO
BETTER FIT WITH HI RES MODELS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARD MORNING AT KABR/KMBG WHERE LATEST
AVIATION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY COME IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AT KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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