Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280735
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
235 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The sfc low across Saskatchewan this morning will be impacting our
weather in one way or another through Monday afternoon. First, the
warm front surging north of our area this morning will put us in the
warm sector, then the cold front will sink across the cwa Sunday
night before finally exiting to our southeast by 00Z Tuesday. A line
of strong showers/thunderstorms continues to track northeast at
around 25kts on the WAA. Hail remain the main threat with these
storms, with radar estimated storm total rainfall around an inch
under the stronger storms.

Otherwise for today...hot and dry conditions will be the theme for
this afternoon, with temperatures running about 10F above normal for
this time of year. This means highs in the mid to upper 90s west of
ABR, and in the upper 80s east. With all this heat, and dewpoints in
the upper 40s to low 50s west river, RH values will be in the 20s
with a few far west areas flirting with the upper teens. On a
positive note fire weather wise, winds should remain less than 20mph
in that area, even with strong afternoon mixing up over 700mb.

While convection will be possible over western MN and much of
eastern-southeastern SD Monday evening with the passage of the cold
front, will not go quite as high/specific with the 00Z GFS. Could
see the need for pops to be increased above the slight chance
category as the time nears. Drier high pressure will then work in
late Monday night through Tuesday with temps returning to the 80s
cwa wide in the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

A ridge aloft will remain over the Plains through Friday. Then
the flow will shift to the southwest ahead of a trough. Temperatures
in the 80s and lower 90s through Saturday will fall to around 80 on
Sunday.

LLJ activity will increase ahead of a lee side sfc low Thursday
night. After a mostly dry start to the extended, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase at the end of the work week. The
low will move off the Rockies and through the Dakotas late Friday
and Saturday. Then, shortwave activity will increase as the ridge
exits and the trough begins to move in. This activity will keep
precip in the forecast through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the taf valid period. Isold
showers/storms are possible with LLJ overnight, and then again with
diabatic heating Sunday afternoon.  However with only isold coverage
expected will not include in any tafs at this time.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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