Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 052006
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
206 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE THE TWO CLIPPER
SYSTEMS WITH ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

THIS EVENING WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COTEAU TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE INVERSION DISAPPEARING BY 3Z SO SUPPORT
FOR A CLASSIC LEE SIDE EVENT OUTSIDE OF THE 35 KT 925 MB WINDS IS
MINIMAL. THE FORECAST WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DRIFTING SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE USUAL SPOTS OF I-29. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY 6Z.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE FIRST CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS ONLY WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG THE SISSETON HILLS THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEPENDING ON MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. BY SAT NIGHT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE.
THESE FEATURES WILL PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS A WIDER SWATH OF THE
CWA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COLD FRONT MIXES IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT. AN INCH OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STILL LOOKS RATHER WARM...FOR EARLY MARCH...AS THE PERIOD OPENS.
925HPA THERMAL PROGS SHOW NO REAL SIGN OF DIPPING BELOW 0C UNTIL
DAY 7. WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...THE 12Z GFS /COLD TEMPS/ AND 12Z
ECMWF /WARM TEMPS/ REMAIN AT ODDS ON JUST HOW THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD PLAY OUT. BUT...SUPERBLEND`S
OUTPUT IS DECIDEDLY FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE OF THINGS. ALOFT...THE
PATTERN IS SPLIT FLOW...WITH THIS CWA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHERN STREAM NORTHWEST FLOW UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN
THINGS SEEM TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AT THE MOMENT...GOOD VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SOUTHERLY BREEZES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. AT KMBG...WINDS MAY JUST GO CALM OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG BY SUNRISE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







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