Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230145 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WINDS GOING LIGHT...SKIES CLEARING...AND LITTLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TNT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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