Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 172304 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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