Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 240120 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
820 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 817 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Just a few showers still occurring along the frontal boundary
tracking across the eastern CWA. With the loss of daytime
heating, it appears this may be the extent of the precipitation
tonight, therefore have adjusted pops to fit the current situation
and have lowered them across the far eastern CWA. Have also
allowed the Red Flag Warning that was in effect west river to
expire. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

The threat for severe storms later this evening will be the main
forecast challenge.

An area of low pressure and associated cold front is currently
located along Highway 83. Based on radar trends, the front should
reach the James River Valley close to 23Z. By then, an upper level
trough should cool off 700 mb temps enough for convection to
develop. While there is excellent MU-CAPE, there is little 0-6 KM
bulk shear to support widespread strong to severe storms. Believe
locally heavy rainfall will be the main front due to high PWATS and
slow storm motion. Convection should push east of the region after
6Z with dry conditions expected through Thursday. Temperatures
through Thursday will also be on the cool side with highs only in
the low to mid 70s, with lows in the 40s and low 50s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast
Thursday night as an upper level trough approaches the region from
the west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Pcpn chances are the main issue in the long term. A decent looking
mid level trof will move across the region later Friday into
Saturday. This system will likely bring a good chance of rain to the
region at that time. Severe chances at this point don`t look all
that great, although the southern cwa may see decent moisture return
and thus a better chance for severe on Saturday. Confidence on this
prognostication, though, is not great given speed differences
between the GFS/ECMWF concerning the mid level low/trof.

For Sunday through Tuesday, heights begin to rise and thus
temperatures are also likely to see a boost.  Convection chances
should also see a tick down under warmer air aloft, but can`t
entirely rule out thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

A frontal boundary will track across the eastern portion of the
CWA this evening, and may be the focus for thunderstorm activity,
with brief periods of MVFR cigs and vsbys possible. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through the
day Wednesday.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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