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000
FXUS63 KABR 151727 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING. FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION OF 90KT JET
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME NOW ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS...HOWEVER DRY
AIR ADVECTING BELOW HELPING TO LIMIT ANY RAIN ACCUMULATION TO A
TRACE/HUNDREDTH. CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROCEED EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...SO NO CHANGE TO FORECAST HIGHS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING E-NE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG THE 850 MB
MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH STRETCHES FROM SISSETON...SSW TO PIERRE.
THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE HI-RES MODELS OF THE
ARW/NMM SHOWED THIS BAND OF CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL...THUS HAVE
ADDED POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL DRYING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RIDE ALONG A MID LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT ON SUNDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS. THE RIDGE WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SETTLE IN OVER THE
PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE RIDGE THEN GETS DAMPENED AS AN UPPER
LOW TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAY BEGIN TO SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION REACH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND LOOKS TO KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
THEREFORE...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

H85 TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S THROUGHOUT
THE LONG TERM...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. VFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS. A VORT MAX
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTORM MAY MOVE CLOSE TO KPIR BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z. HOWEVER MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TIMING AND INSTABILITY SO
WILL NOT ADD IN PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN