Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 160556 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REPORTED EARLIER APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED WHILE
WIND SPEEDS ARE SEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING AS WELL. REGIONAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 3SM TO P6SM VISIBILITY...AND ANY
REMAINING SNOWFALL NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE FORM OF CAA SCATTERED
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH.
WILL BE CANCELING/EXPIRING THE WINT WX ADV/BLIZZARD WARNING
HEADLINES BY MIDNIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

OF COURSE MAIN ISSUE IS DEALING WITH WHATS LEFT OF STORM SYSTEM
HEADED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MIXED BAG OF
PCPN TYPES SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING APART.
THIS BAND AND THE COMBINED WIND IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME GIVEN
THE LOW VISIBILITY BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUS THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED IS HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AFTER LOOKING
AT AREA WEB CAMS...FOR NOW FEEL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN
HANDLE THE SITUATION BUT WILL KEEP ANY EYE ON IT. LIKE MENTIONED
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL APART BY EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE YET. WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL
NORTH INTO CANADA I HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING ANY REAL REDUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND THUS LOW TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE LOOK WAY TOO COLD.
SIDED MORE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH LOWS TNT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND PRESUMABLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...SO MAY SEE
THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY. RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.

A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SOME HINTS
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT CERTAINLY
NOTHING OF SUBSTANTIAL CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KMBG/KABR/KATY...SCATTERED FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
STREAMING SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLEARING PUSHING IN FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
MAY END UP PRODUCING A 3 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF VFR CLEARING BETWEEN
APPX 06Z AND 12Z.

KPIR...MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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