Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 282021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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