Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230232 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
932 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Made a couple of adjustments to the skycover grids to beef up the
cloud cover wording as this area of stratus just over the border
slowly slips southward into the CWA. Thinking this cloudiness will
eventually clear off or shift southeast out of ne South Dakota and
west central MN late tonight, allowing for temperatures to still
fall somewhere close to forecast lows. No plans to tinker with
temperatures at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Continue to monitor the line of clouds developing over far E SD and
N Central MN, as this area still has DCAPE values of around 1300J/KG
and dewpoints in the 60s. This area had been placed into the SPC
marginal risk area during the late morning update. Still expect
much of the activity to be SE of our CWA as we move into the late
afternoon hours. Strong gusty winds remain, with several locations
gusting out of the NW to 25-35mph at 18Z. The inverted trough will
continue to slowly pivot across N Central MN through 06Z Thursday,
extending from the sfc low tracking from W IA to Central IL. Did
put a small chance of fog portions of central and E areas.
However, if the dry air builds in like it`s been trying too, it
will be very difficult for any fog to form.

Dry high pressure will build in behind this feature, sliding from E
MT and S Saskatchewan this afternoon to much of W and Central ND by
06Z. The high will continue to slide E through the day Thursday,
resulting in not only dry conditions, but much less wind. It will be
centered over our CWA from 15-18Z Thursday.

The next chance of seeing any precip will likely hold off until late
Thursday night into early Friday morning over mainly N Central SD.
This will be associated with the passage of a warm front and
developing LLJ as the sfc high slides across WI. Otherwise, Friday
still looks hot, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
(although in the upper 80s to low 90s E of the James River.
Continued going slightly higher than guidance values for Friday. A
slightly better chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop
Friday night across W and Central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

The extended period begins with a frontal boundary centered over the
CWA...with some lingering showers and thunderstorms possible across
mainly the central and eastern portions of the CWA on Saturday as
the front pushes across those areas and out of the CWA. A strong cap
will be in place through the morning hours...then the front will be
just about out of the area...so may be some limiting factors...and
therefore will keep pops on the lower side. High pressure then moves
in and will keep things dry Saturday night through the day Monday.
Precipitation chances will then be confined mainly to the western
and southern portions of the CWA as low pressure develops over the
central high plains...but a surface high remains to our north and
east.

High temperatures will be near to slightly above normal...mainly in
the upper 70s and 80s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to
around 60 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

There is an area of MVFR stratus clouds positioned across much of
central and eastern North Dakota, and these clouds are expected to
take a jog southward into this forecast area later tonight after
the sun sets. Terminals most likely to see cigs between 1000ft agl
and 3000ft agl later tonight include the KABR and KATY terminals.
KMBG currently appears to be on the edge of the stratus deck, per
current short range models and guidance. Have some stratus showing
up now in the KABR and KATY terminals during the overnight hours,
and will continue to adjust cig heights and timing as the evening
wears on. Otherwise, VFR weather will prevail over the next 24
hours.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



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