Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020226 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. FORECAST IN FINE SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES STILL MAINLY CENTERED ON TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS. RADAR
SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN STILL WORKING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST AREA AS WELL. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE LIFT FROM A MID-
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS STILL AVAILABLE. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED AND
APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG AN OLD STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROF OVER THE REGION. DESPITE THERE BEING AN
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL JET FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST ZONES...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. BUT IF A STORM DID DEVELOP...THE NEEDED
INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE CERTAINLY ALL THERE. AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN PWAT VALUES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50 INCHES.

OTHERWISE...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STARING DOWN A PREDOMINANTLY DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NO NOTEWORTHY AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
PROGGED TO WORK OVER THE CWA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. JUST PLENTY OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS. MODELS PROG THE WARM
AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER/SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITHOUT A WESTERLY-COMPONENT TO THE
MIXING WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S...GETTING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA TO WARM AS
MUCH AS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHALLENGING.
CONTINUED TO TEMPER MAX T GRIDS WITH A BIAS-CORRECTION FACTOR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE WEEKEND STILL APPEARS TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
EPISODES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE HAD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGHER
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND THE WARM FRONT...IT WOULD SEEM THERE WOULD BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS. IT APPEARS MODELS ARE TRYING TO
FINALLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THINGS BEGIN
TO DRY OUT AND COOLER TEMPS MOVE IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TONIGHT. HOWEVER CANT
ENTIRELY RULE OUT PATCHY FOG OR STRATUS TOWARD DAYBREAK. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL ONLY INCLUDE A MENTION OF MVFR FOG AT KABR/KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK



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